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SUBSCRIBE ? Volume 4 | Issue 2 | Monday, April 6, 2009 Click here to view in browser
Quarterly Data
MBA 4Q DataBook Shows Commercial Markets Struggling
Commercial real estate markets continue to struggle with a variety of pressures, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported in its 4th Quarter 2008 Commercial Real Estate Finance/Multifamily Data Book.
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Economic Outlook

Loan Production

Loans Outstanding

Loan Performance

Statistical Spotlight

Commercial/Multifamily Roundup

Industry Commentary

Article Abstracts

Economic Outlook
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MBA: Commercial Real Estate Growth, Economy Depend on Employment Recovery
SAN DIEGO--Unemployment will lag in any recovery from the current recession and could peak by mid-2010 as high as 9.6 percent, said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association.
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Housing Crisis Correlates to CMBS Performance, Fitch Says
States facing the greatest impact from the housing boom can also expect greater cash flow stress in its commercial properties and the commercial mortgage-backed securities they secure, said Fitch Ratings, New York.
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Beige Book: Credit Constraints Slow Construction, Leasing
Commercial, industrial and retail space demand continued declines from last year in January through mid-February as credit constraints slow commercial construction and leasing activity, the Federal Reserve Board said in its March 5 Beige Book.
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Loan Production
MBA: Commercial/Multifamily Originations Down 80% from Year Ago
SAN DIEGO--Commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations dropped by 80 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous year, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported in its latest Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations.
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Life Insurance Companies Indirectly Invest in CRE Market
Life insurance companies appear ready to invest in commercial real estate in a more indirect method until market values hit bottom.
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Loans Outstanding
Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases During Fourth Quarter
The level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding grew by 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, to $3.5 trillion, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association analysis of the Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds data. 
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Strip Center Vacancies Add to Bank Concerns
Higher vacancy rates among small retail centers could add further pressure to existing bank portfolios.
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Wachovia Leads National Rankings of Commercial/Multifamily Servicing Volume
SAN DIEGO--Wachovia Securities, with $412.9 billion in U.S. master and primary servicing, leads the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual ranking of commercial and multifamily loan servicers.
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MBA: $171B in Non-Bank Commercial/Multifamily Mortgages to Mature in 2009
SAN DIEGO--The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that $171 billion of commercial/multifamily mortgages held by non-bank lenders and investors will mature in 2009, with volume of loans maturing varying considerably by type of investor holding the loan.
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Loan Performance
Credit Markets, Economy Add Pressure to Commercial Mortgage Performance
The weakening economy and continued credit crunch contributed to increases in commercial/multifamily mortgage delinquencies during the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
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Major CMBS Assets Face Tougher Times Ahead
Hotel, office and retail properties that secure commercial mortgage-backed securities loans in the United States will likely get worse before they get better with recovery unlikely until 2011, industry analysts said.
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Tight Credit Further Stresses Commercial Properties
Distressed commercial properties represented $46 billion of property sales in the United States or 56 percent of the global total, said Real Capital Analytics, New York, in its February Global Capital Trends report.
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Statistical Spotlight
Moody's Releases Sweep Results
Moody's Investors Service, New York, said it would begin a ratings sweep of CRE CDOs in March with a release of its results in April.
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CRE Charge-Offs Continue
Commercial real estate charge-offs increased as unemployment directly followed suit during the fourth quarter and into January, indicating banks will continue writing off loans.
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CRE Values Drop at Record Rates, MIT Study Says
Sale prices on commercial property deals sold by major institutional investors set two records in the fourth quarter last year: they dropped by more than 10 percent for the quarter and more than 15 percent for the year, said the MIT Center for Real Estate.
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Commercial/Multifamily Roundup
Office Market in Rapid Deterioration
The nation's office property market moved from bad to worse as vacancies increased, values dropped and credit tightened.
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Hotel Transactions Fall as Investors Step Back
Hotel transactions in the United States last year reached $8.5 billion, down from a record $45 billion in 2007 as liquidity dried, demand fundamentals deteriorated and investors moved to the sidelines, said Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, Chicago.
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Industrial Market Finds Silver Lining Out West
Asking rental rates fell slightly for industrial space--primarily in the logistic market--during the fourth quarter despite rising vacancy rates and double-digit property value declines.
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Industry Commentary
CMBS Faces Structural Change for Investor Confidence
The commercial mortgage-backed securities model and structure will need some overhaul, some regulatory oversight and some "tweaking" before investor confidence returns to the CMBS market, said Constantine Korologos, managing director at Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP, New York.
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Small or Large, Bank Liquidity Remains Dry
Midwest regional banks find industrial properties and commercial real estate development more risky and deposits more lucrative as liquidity from large or small banks struggles to make its way into borrower hands.
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Q/A with Tim Mazzetti of Cohen Financial
Tim Mazzetti, partner and executive vice president of Cohen Financial, Chicago, spoke with MBA Commercial/Multifamily NewsLink at the Mortgage Bankers Association Commercial Real Estate Finance/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo in San Diego about the new role of the mortgage banker, the role servicing plays during the credit crunch and an industry on the cusp of change.
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QuoteLink

"Commercial and multifamily mortgage lending slowed to a trickle in the fourth quarter. Origination levels in the fourth quarter were 80 percent below last year's fourth quarter, and originations for all of 2008 were down approximately 60 percent from 2007 levels. Between the worsening economy and the continued credit crunch, lenders are extremely cautious about lending and borrowers are likely to hold onto the assets and the loans they already have."
--Jamie Woodwell, vice president of commercial research at the Mortgage Bankers Association
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StatLink

About MBA NewsLink
Publisher: Cheryl Crispen, Senior Vice President - Communications and Marketing
Editor: Mike Sorohan 202/557-2855 MSorohan@mortgagebankers.org
Editorial Manager: Michael Murray 202/557-2851 MMurray@mortgagebankers.org
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John Courson, President and CEO, Mortgage Bankers Association

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