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MBA Announces 2009 COMBOG Leadership
CRE Market to ‘Hit Bottom’ Next Year, Report Says
In Brief: Trepp, Midland HyperLink CMBS Data for Transparency

Retail Sales Continue Slide
Residential Foreclosures Lead to CRE Fundamental Weaknesses
Fundamentals Falter in Credit Crunch, Beige Book Says

HFF Secures $37.8M for European Boutique Hotels

MBA Launches Council on Ensuring Mortgage Liquidity

Winter Capital Markets Conference December 4-5 in D.C.
CampusMBA, Insurance Advisors Offer Live Online Workshop
Begala, Carlson in Opening General Session at CREF 2009

Rorison Named President of Watt Commercial Properties

CRE Industry Seeks Capital Booster Shot

MBA Announces 2009 COMBOG Leadership
MBA (10/23/2008) Vasquez, Jason
SAN FRANCISCO—The Mortgage Bankers Association announced election of Daryl Carter, chairman and CEO of Avanath Capital Partners, as the new chair of its Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Board of Governors at MBA’s 95th Annual Convention & Expo.
MBA also elected David Roberts, CMB, president and CEO of Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC, and E.J. Burke, executive vice president and group head of KeyBank Real Estate Capital, as COMBOG’s new vice chairs.
COMBOG consists of 30 MBA member executives representing all aspects of the commercial/multifamily finance industry. COMBOG leads strategic development of MBA’s commercial/multifamily policy and industry technology, as well as best practices and standards. COMBOG represents the diverse interests of MBA’s member companies through standing committees, led by industry leaders and expert staff, and subject matter-specific work groups and task forces.
“The Mortgage Bankers Association’s commitment to promoting commercial/multifamily real estate finance is critical to shaping the future of this dynamic component of our industry,” said MBA Chairman David Kittle, CMB. “Under the leadership of Daryl Carter, with the support of Dave Roberts and E.J. Burke, COMBOG will continue to make material industry contributions during these challenging and unpredictable times.”
In addition to his service on COMBOG, Carter has also served on MBA’s Board of Directors and continues to serve as chairman of MBA’s Diversity Task Force.
Serving in his second term as vice chair, Roberts is a long-standing supporter of MBA’s multifamily initiatives and has chaired both the DUS Advisory Council and the Multifamily Committee.
In his first term as vice chair, Burke is currently active on COMBOG and MBA’s Board of Directors and has served on the Portfolio Investors Committee.
New COMBOG members include:
• M. W. Sam Davis, Allstate Insurance, Northbrook, Ill.
• Keith Dunsmore, Powell Goldstein, LLP, Washington, D.C.
• Timothy Forrester, Deloitte, Princeton, N.J.
• Anthony Frook, Americo Life, Kansas City, Mo.
• Guy Johnson, Johnson Capital, Irvine, Calif.
• Jeffrey Juster, Churchill Capital Co., Dallas
Returning members of COMBOG include:
• E.J. Burke, KeyBank Real Estate Capital, Kansas City, Mo.
• Michael Berman, CMB, CWCapital, Needham, Mass.
• Daryl Carter, Avanath Capital Partners LLC, Irvine, Calif.
• Kim Diamond, Standard & Poor’s, New York
• Ernest Fair Jr., TIAA-CREF, New York
• Tari Flannery, CMB, M & T Realty Capital Corp., Baltimore
• Steven Graves, Principal Real Estate Investors, Des Moines, Iowa
• J. Christopher Hoeffel, JP Morgan, New York
• Thomas Jensen, MEMBERS Capital Advisors, Madison, Wis.
• Brian Lancaster, Wachovia Securities, Charlotte, N.C.
• Scott Moore, RED Mortgage Capital Inc., Columbus, Ohio
• Stephanie Petosa, Fitch Ratings, New York
• Diana Reid, PNC Real Estate Finance, New York
• Bob Ricci, Wachovia Securities, New York
• David Roberts, CMB, Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC, Birmingham, Ala.
• Patrick Sargent, Andrews Kurth LLP, Dallas
• Henry Schwendiman, CMB, Q10│Bonneville Mortgage Co., Salt Lake City, Utah
• Howard Smith III, Green Park Financial, Bethesda, Md.
• Brian Stoffers, CMB, CB Richard Ellis│Capital Markets, Houston
• Thomas Szydlowski, Wells Fargo Multifamily Capital, McLean, Va.
• H. Treak Tasker, CMB, Holliday American Mortgage LLC, Tulsa, Okla.
• Robert Vestewig, GEMSA Loan Services LP, Houston
• Eric Von Berg, CMB, Newmark Realty Capital Inc., San Francisco
• David Zachar, PPM Finance Inc., Chicago
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CRE Market to ‘Hit Bottom’ Next Year, Report Says
MBA (10/23/2008) Sorohan, Mike
Commercial real estate—a latecomer to the real estate finance downturn—faces even more turmoil in the next two years as the full effects of the credit crunch hit, according to a new report from the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
The Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2009 Report forecasts financial and real estate markets in the U.S. to “bottom in 2009, then flounder for much of 2010, with ongoing drops in property values, more foreclosures and delinquencies and a limping economy that will continue to crimp property cash flows.”
For commercial real estate, things will get worse—much worse—before they get better, said ULI Senior Resident Fellow for Real Estate Finance Stephen Blank. The report projects losses of 15 percent to 20 percent in real estate values from the mid-2007 peak.
“Commercial real estate faces its worst year since the wrenching 1991-1992 industry depression,” Blank said. “Only when property financing gets restructured will pricing recorrect so we can find the floor; and this transition could wipe out companies and people.”
The report said financial institutions will continue to be pressured into moving bad loans off balance sheets, using auctions to speed up the process. Investors will be discouraged until the “bloodletting” is over. When that occurs, cash and low-leverage buyers will be “king;” surviving banks will impose strict lending guidelines; commercial mortgage-backed securities will revive, but in a more regulated form; and opportunity funds will need new investment models.
“The industry is facing multiple disconnects,” Blank said. “Many property owners are drowning in debt, lenders are not lending, and for many industry professionals, property income flows are declining. There is an unprecedented avoidance of risk. Only when financing gets restructured will pricing reconcile, giving the industry a point from which to start digging out of this hole.”
Despite the gloom forecast, the report sees some hopeful signs. Distress in the housing market has benefited the apartment market, which the report lists as the number-one “buy.” Moderate-income apartments in core urban markets near mass transit offer the best buy, a trend that carried over from the previous year.
The report also noted that commercial markets will recover more quickly than most housing markets, with home builders in some cases forced to sell land tracts for “cents on the dollar” or face foreclosure on their holdings, adding to the already high rate of mortgage defaults and foreclosures.
“The cyclical real estate markets always comes back, and they will this time too, but not anytime soon,” said Tim Conlon, partner and U.S. real estate sector leader for PricewaterhouseCoopers. “Commercial real estate was the last to leave the party, will feel the pain in 2009, and may be the last to recover. In the meantime, smart investors are going to hunker down and manage through these tough times. We expect to see patient, disciplined, long-term investors rewarded and return to a back-to-basics approach to property management, underwriting and deal structure.”
The main beneficiaries of the real estate downturn in the U.S. are cash-rich offshore buyers, whom the report predicted will continue to take advantage of the weak dollar and will buy trophy properties in major 24-hour cities. But such hubris comes with a warning, the report said: “The industry shouldn’t blindly count on a restored well-spring to jump-start transactions and development. The dynamics of capital markets have changed dramatically.”
The report ranked Seattle, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., New York and Los Angeles as the top investment cities in the U.S. Conversely, the report describes the suburban L.A. markets of Riverside and Orange County, along with Las Vegas, Phoenix and most Florida markets as being in “disarray.”
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In Brief: Trepp, Midland HyperLink CMBS Data for Transparency
MBA (10/23/2008) MBA Staff
Trepp LLC, New York, and Midland Loan Services/PNC, Overland Park, Kan., will hyperlink Trepp web site users—with access to CMBS data on more than 100,000 loans supporting more than $1 trillion in securities—to loan information on Midland’s CMBS Investor Insight Internet portal, an investor reporting tool with CMBS transactions in which Midland acts as a master servicer, for greater investor transparency.
Users can access data to monitor performance and credit quality of their CMBS portfolios and investments, said Stacey Berger, executive vice president at Midland.
Trepp added deal and loan-level links to CMBS Investor Insight for Midland master serviced transactions, and the deal-level link provides access to various CMSA data files, including loan setup file, property file and financial file. Loan-level links provide access to data files that include financial statements, net operating income worksheets, rent rolls and property inspections.
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Centerline Capital Group, a New York-based subsidiary of Centerline Holding Co., said it is confident it will meet its loan obligations as they come due, responding to last week’s action by Moody’s Investors Service lowering Centerline’s credit rating.
Centerline reported that, as of August, it paid down its outstanding term loan by more than 50 percent since the beginning of the year, with another payment due by the end of October and the balance due by December 26. Marc Schnitzer, president and CEO of Centerline Capital Group, said the company fully expects to pay its loan obligations as they come due.
The downturn in the credit and capital markets affected revenues in Centerline’s affordable housing and commercial real estate businesses. Its agency lending business and loan servicing platforms remain strong, the company reported.
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Commercial office space demand by large corporate occupiers could drop by as much as 40 percent during the next five years, based on a review by Boston-based Corporate Portfolio Analytics on Alternative Officing implementation.
AO is a design for workplaces that do not assign individual workstations and recognize employees do not work onsite every day.
Martha O’Mara, co-founder and managing director of Corporate Portfolio Analytics, said companies that average 250 square feet or more per person in their conventionally-designed office portfolios should plan for a 40 percent reduction in office space within the next five years, based on early adopters of AO.
Glenn Burdick, managing director and co-founder at Corporate Portfolio Analytics, said AO has “huge implications for real estate investors and developers.” Burdick said energy consumption and environmental concerns serve as underlying reasons for AO adaptation.
Companies could find operating cost-savings from leasing or owning less real estate if locations retain mobile workers, telecommuters and home offices but exit or downsize through AO, Burdick added.
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Retail Sales Continue Slide
MBA (10/23/2008) Velz, Orawin
The lift from tax rebates appeared to dissipate in the third quarter. Retail sales decreased by 1.2 percent in September, the largest month-to-month decline in more than three years. The sharp drop followed a 0.4 percent drop in August and a 0.6 percent drop in July.
A large decline in auto sales drove the sharp decrease in overall sales. Sales excluding autos fell by 0.6 percent. Declines were widespread, with only drug stores and gasoline stations posting small gains.
From a year ago, retail sales decreased by 1.0 percent. This was the first year-over-year drop since October 2002. Since the 1990-91 recession, retail sales have posted year-over-ago drops only three times; the first instance was in September 2001.
Retail sales account for about 40 percent of consumption expenditures with spending on services accounting for the rest. Declining retail sales for the past three months suggested that inflation-adjusted consumer spending likely declined in the third quarter for the first time since the fourth quarter of 1991.
A separate report showed that wholesale prices fell in September for the second consecutive month. The Producer Price Index fell by 0.4 percent, following a 0.9 percent drop in August. Large declines in energy prices led the drop in the overall index. Over the past year, the PPI rose 8.7 percent, edging down from a 9.8 percent gain in July (the largest year-over-year since June 1981) and a 9.7 percent gain in August.
Excluding food and energy items, the core PPI was up a strong 0.4 percent, accelerating from a 0.2 percent gain in August. From a year ago, the core PPI rose by 4.1 percent, the largest gain since February 1983.
Also yesterday, the Federal Reserve released theBeige Book, a summary of economic activity between late August and early October from the 12 District Banks. The Beige Book indicated a broad slowdown in economic activity, including consumer spending and manufacturing activity. District banks reported reduced credit availability as households and businesses are facing tighter credit conditions. Labor market conditions deteriorated while inflation pressures eased somewhat.
In his speech to the Economic Club of New York yesterday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke noted that inflation has been elevated but expected inflation has held steady or eased. His comments suggested that the Fed does not consider inflation a primary concern at this point.
Bernanke said economic growth will be below potential and it will take some time to recover. He assured that Fed officials will "use all the tools” at their disposal to increase liquidity and improve credit conditions. Federal funds futures traders expected a 70 percent probability of a quarter-point cut when the Fed meets October 28-29.
While Bernanke did not label the subpar growth period the economy is expected to face a "recession," San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said in her speech to members of Financial Executives International in Palo Alto on Tuesday night that the economy “appears to be in a recession."
(Orawin Velz is associate vice president of economic forecasting with the Mortgage Bankers Association. She can be reached at ovelz@mortgagebankers.org.)
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Residential Foreclosures Lead to CRE Fundamental Weaknesses
MBA (10/23/2008) Murray, Michael
States hit hardest by residential foreclosures—Florida, California and Nevada—face economic weakness, job losses and commercial real estate fundamentals well into next year, based on metropolitan area reports from Property & Portfolio Research, Boston.
The outlook for apartment, office, retail and warehouse is bleak in Florida, particularly in Fort Lauderdale, which is “ground zero for the housing-led recession,” said Elizabeth Olds, analyst at PPR.
Total employment fell 1.1 percent year-over-year in July, cutting into apartment rental demand and causing a rise in apartment and warehouse vacancies not seen in Fort Lauderdale since the early 1990’s, Olds reported.
Apartment vacancies were up 330 basis points from 2006 to 5.5 percent, the “cooling housing market” reduced wealth-effect spending for retail sales and Olds forecast office absorption to remain in the red through the beginning of next year and warehouse value losses through the end of 2009, despite an eventual swift recovery.
“Fort Lauderdale will struggle along with the rest of the housing-bubble markets,” Olds said. “Market repricing will lead returns into the red this year as income returns fail to outpace value losses.”
Jacksonville, Fla.’s economy “continues to shed jobs at an alarming pace,” said Jessica Willhoft, analyst at PPR. “The housing downturn is the main contributor to the metro's current economic conditions, causing total employment to fall by 0.7 percent as of July—60 basis points below the national average,” Willhoft said.
Apartment vacancies in Jacksonville rose to 11.3 percent in the second quarter from an historical average of 8.6 percent. Willhoft expects apartment value losses to drop nearly 25 percent through 2009 with growth bouncing back in 2010. Office vacancies increased to 17.3 percent, up 110 basis points from four years ago. Willhoft forecasts vacancies to likely climb another 260 basis points before peaking at nearly 20 percent in late 2009.
Since bottoming in late 2006, retail vacancies jumped more than 6 percent to their current level of 20.6 percent. Willhoft, however, anticipates port expansion with supply deliveries to keeping warehouse vacancies more in check.
“The financial activities job sector has remained in the black so far, but Jacksonville's financial exposure could mean unpleasant implications from the Wall Street implosion,” Willhoft said. “Expect more layoffs in the near term.”
In California, Inland Empire, East Bay and San Diego face job losses, and they continue to pile up in East Bay—areas in and surrounding San Francisco and Oakland. “There is a chance that this could become the worst economic downturn the metro has seen in over 30 years,” said Jeff Myers, analyst at PPR.
Apartment vacancies increased 40 basis points since the beginning of the year, forecast to ascend by another 60 basis points by year's end. East Bay office has the highest vacancy rate in Northern California, at 17.5 percent, and retail and warehouse vacancies increased 70 basis points since the beginning of the year. Myers forecasts at least 30 more basis points higher in retail and 200 basis points up in warehouse by the end of the year if it should “turn out to be a double-dip recession.”
The San Diego market—not as weak as its southern California counterparts, still shed 3,800 jobs, PPR Analyst Aaron Jodka reported.
Apartment pricing will essentially be back to 2003 levels, and total office returns—averaging just 5.9 percent per year—will rank 7th worst out of PPR’s 54 markets analyzed and falling values are holding down overall performance in warehouse, with returns forecast at 6.9 percent per year, ranked 44th in the PPR54 benchmark, Jodka said.
Inland Empire’s metro lost 2.5 percent of its total job base—31,000 jobs—in the 12 months ending in July, with more than half from the construction sector, PPR said.
“The Inland Empire is home to some of the worst job losses in the country,” PPR Analyst Katie Schnidman said. “The cause: the metro's economic driver, the residential market, has collapsed.”
Schnidman said warehouse vacancies will remain below their historical average of 10.4 percent as office vacancies skyrocket across the metro, rising by nearly 11 percent from their low in the first quarter of 2006.
“They will peak by the end of 2008,” Schnidman said.
She said a 25 percent increase through 2017 in the 20-34-year-old age range should show a good recovery and bounce back for apartment properties in 2010 following “steep value losses through 2009, but average annual returns of only 6.5 percent in retail will rank Inland Empire seventh worst in the PPR54, “behind the likes of Phoenix, Chicago, and Las Vegas.”
Las Vegas faces some major exposure with tourism in decline and nearly 30 percent of all jobs in Las Vegas related to leisure and hospitality sectors, said Ryan McCullough, analyst at PPR.
“The sector is expected to cut 4,600 positions this year, which amounts to a 1.7 percent downturn,” McCullough said.
With job loss comes falling demand for apartments, and vacancies increased to 6.4 percent by the end of the second quarter. McCullough said it will reach 9 percent by the end of 2009.
“Value losses this year may cut as deep as 20 percent, in the case of a severe recession, resulting in negative total returns for investors. But the market is expected to rebound in 2010 and produce positive value gains for the remainder of the forecast,” McCullough said.
McCullough, however, added that office market vacancies are “on a runaway trajectory.”
“Vacancies are not expected to top out until the end of 2009, at over 20 percent,” McCullough said. “Even then, recovery should come slowly, and the trend line will stabilize at about 18 percent by 2011.”
For retail, economic vacancies in Las Vegas are “set to explode over the next four quarters,” McCullough said, noting oversupply in the retail market. He forecasts economic vacancies to “shoot up 710 basis points, up to 23.3 percent by the second quarter of 2009.”
“It will take a long, long time to soak up the market's excess supply,” McCullough said. “Las Vegas [retail] property values have a long way to fall.”
A drop in warehouse demand with significant level of supply should result in market vacancies rising as high as 8.5 percent by the second quarter of 2009, he added.
“Las Vegas property values have a long way to fall. Property depreciation of 5-7 percent per year should plague the market in 2008-09—and the potential to reach double-digit losses annually if the economy worsens—with the market finally leveling out in 2011. This value correction will produce total average returns in the metro of just 5.9 percent per year, the third-lowest level [in PPR54],” McCullough said.
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Fundamentals Falter in Credit Crunch, Beige Book Says
MBA (10/23/2008) Murray, Michael
New York, San Francisco and Dallas districts reported sharp declines in commercial real estate and construction activity, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported.
The Beige Book also noted that several districts across the country reported project delays and cancellations from “tighter credit conditions and increased economic uncertainty.” In Manhattan, brokerage firms reported office vacancy rates climbed nearly one-half point in September and asking rents, up modestly from comparable 2007 levels, retreated.
A respondent noted that asking rents overstated actual market rents because of a mix in more upscale available space—with financial firms pulling back—and landlords became more willing to negotiate and offer concessions.
An expert on Manhattan's hospitality industry said hotel development slowed and developers that have not started physical construction are mostly unable to obtain financing to go forward with most hotel projects being curtailed. “Currently, no new developments are being started,” the Beige Book said.
Limited availability of credit constrained property purchases in the San Francisco district and tightened the number and scope of projects under construction in some areas of the district, the Beige Book reported.
Demand for nonresidential product fell as vacancy rates on commercial space in Las Vegas and other major metropolitan areas increased. Contacts in the San Francisco district said strongest construction activity took place for public buildings, including hospitals and schools. Commercial real estate respondents in the Dallas district said leasing activity for office and industrial space declined sharply as businesses reevaluate plans based on "current uncertainties."
The Beige Book reported commercial property sales in the Dallas district continuing to plummet, with one contact in the industrial market saying closings had "hit the wall." Lenders appear more wary of raising their exposure to real estate, especially with recent merger and consolidation activity, which could elevate acquiring banks' shares of real estate loans on the books.
The Dallas district reported some early 2009 projects were pushed back or halted, but previously funded projects in the pipeline are expected to keep commercial construction activity solid.
While the Cleveland and St. Louis districts indicated steady activity, the Chicago, Boston and Atlanta districts reported vacancy rate increases or rising sublease space.
Contacts in the Chicago district cited ongoing retail and industrial construction weakness with increased retail vacancy rates and a rise in office sublease space. Cancellations and delays of commercial projects were again reported in the Chicago district as availability and financing costs continued to be a concern.
In the Boston district, “even the most creditworthy borrowers have been unable to obtain funding for profitable properties,” the Beige Book said.
Boston district respondents reported construction loans as "non-existent" with construction activity grounding to a near halt. A mutual bank in the Boston district capped loan size in order to conserve capital, restricting its funding to refinancing and acquisitions for borrowers who put in significant equity and properties with reliable income streams.
A Boston district contact at an asset management firm said the commercial real estate sales and development market is non-existent and “not coming back any time soon, until the credit crisis can be resolved.”
Projects in the Atlanta district were postponed or cancelled because of funding constraints and weak economic conditions. Several contacts noted available sublease space rose modestly, and commercial contractors anticipated development activity would slow further.
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HFF Secures $37.8M for European Boutique Hotels
MBA (10/23/2008) Murray, Michael
The Boston office of Holliday Fenoglio Fowler LP secured $37.8 million in acquisition financing for two boutique hotels—one in London and the other in Geneva, Switzerland.
Anthony Cutone, director at HFF, placed two loans through CTL Capital LLC, New York, for TJAC, an international real estate development firm based in Hato Rey, Puerto Rico. TJAC said it would use proceeds to acquire and renovate the properties.
Courtfield Gardens is a five-story boutique hotel in the Kensington area of London, and Rue Muzy is a six-story property in Geneva.
Andy Scott, managing director at HFF's Dallas office, secured a $47.35 million construction loan for Brick Row, a mixed-use property under development in Dallas. Scott worked with a joint venture partnership between Dallas-based Winston Capital Corp., L&B Realty Advisors and the Michigan Employees Retirement System.
A three-bank syndication, led by Colonial Bank, Montgomery, Ala., with Texas Capital Bank, Dallas, and Broadway Bank, San Antonio, provided the three-year construction loan.
Upon completion in mid-year 2010, plans for Brick Row consist of 500 multifamily units and 16,000 square feet of ground-level retail space configured around two central parking structures. The Brick Row project is part of a large-scale master planned development consisting of for-sale townhomes, residential condominiums, ancillary retail and a public park.
Developers expect the project to spur redevelopment of South Richardson, Texas. Principals at Winston Capital and L&B worked with the city of Richardson, Dallas County and the North Texas Council of Governments to finalize plans for the site.
Scott said closing the deal had to do, in part, with strong sponsorship and location. “Projects such as Brick Row are essential in defining the new landscape of transit-oriented development in the Dallas Fort Worth metroplex," Scott said.
The New York office of HFF secured a $25 million first mortgage financing for Rockaway 80, a 260,186-square-foot, Class-A office building in Rockaway, N.J.
Michael Tepedino, senior managing director, and Steven Klein, director at HFF, represented the borrower, Grosvenor Investment Management, a North American subsidiary of London-based Grosvenor Group Ltd. Tepedino and Klein arranged the floating-rate loan through MassMutual, Springfield, Mass.
Originally completed in 1991 and renovated in 2006, Rockaway 80’s office building consists of seven stories and a two-level, 883-space parking structure. The property, 77 percent leased to tenants, includes Reed Elsevier, Prudential Insurance and Hartford Insurance nearly eight miles west of an intersection where Interstates 80 and 287 meet in Rockaway.
“Rockaway 80 benefits from a strategic location between Exits 34 and 35 of Interstate 80 providing excellent highway access,” Klein said. “This location also offers corporate tenants a unique combination of outstanding corporate amenities and close proximity to a growing population base.”
Tim Wright, senior managing director in HFF’s San Diego office, and John Ahmed, associate director at HFF’s Dallas office, worked on behalf of the Allen Group, San Diego, to secure a $20 million, 36-month adjustable-rate bridge loan with American Bank of Texas, Fredericksburg, Texas. The loan recapitalizes 1,031 acres in the Dallas Logistics Hub, a 6,000-acre, master-planned development.
DLH spans across Dallas, Lancaster, Wilmer and Hutchins, master-planned for 60 million square feet of distribution, manufacturing, office and retail developments.
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MBA Launches Council on Ensuring Mortgage Liquidity
MBA (10/23/2008) Vasquez, Jason
The Mortgage Bankers Association yesterday announced it assembled a task force of MBA members to examine policy options and issue recommendations for the future of the secondary mortgage market.
The Council on Ensuring Mortgage Liquidity will be led by Michael Berman, CMB, MBA's incoming vice chairman and president of CWCapital, Needham, Mass.
"The next 16 months will see a wide-ranging policy debate focusing on recreation and redefinition of the secondary mortgage market and the roles that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks will play," said MBA Chairman-Elect David Kittle, CMB. "As the national trade association representing the real estate finance industry, we will bring together some of the sharpest minds in the industry to discuss what that market should look like and make recommendations to policy makers on the structure for the secondary mortgage market and the GSEs."
As its first act, the Council announced it would convene a one-day summit on Nov. 19 in Washington, D.C. The summit, Ensuring Mortgage Liquidity: A Summit on the Future of the Secondary Mortgage Market and GSEs, will serve as a forum for Council members to learn from experts from government, academia and other areas on the root causes of the secondary mortgage market's disintegration; which important ingredients must be in place for a new market; and potential solutions to consider.
"The Council wants to bring together a wide variety of experts who can engage in a vigorous discussion about what needs to be done to build a robust secondary mortgage market that will help us offer affordable credit to qualified borrowers," Berman said. "We want to hear from all sides and get all the options out on the table. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks are pieces of the puzzle, but we have been presented with a rare opportunity here to remake the entire market. We need to get it right."
Following the Summit, the Council will meet regularly to discuss options, with the goal of providing formal recommendations to policymakers by early spring.
Members of MBA's Council on Ensuring Mortgage Liquidity include:
• Michael Berman, CMB, CWCapital (Chairman)
• Richard Aneshansel, U.S. Bank Home Mortgage
• Jon Baymiller, AmTrust Bank
• Timothy Dale, CMB, BB&T
• Peter Donovan, CBRE/Melody
• Robert Gaither, Bank of America
• S.A Ibrahim, Radian Guarantee Inc.
• Curt Johnson, First American Land Title
• John Johnson, CMB, MortgageAmerica Inc.
• Richard Jones, Dechert LLP
• David Katkov, PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.
• Rodrigo Lopez, CMB, AmeriSphere Multifamily Finance LLC
• David Lowman, Chase Home Lending
• Regina Lowrie, CMB, Vision Mortgage Capital
• Peter Makowiecki, MetLife Home Loans
• Kieran Quinn, CMB, Column Financial Inc.
• Diana Reid, PNC Real Estate
• David Roberts, CMB, Grandbridge Real Estate Capital LLC
• Bruce Williams, HomeStreet Bank
• Michael Young, Cenlar FSB
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Winter Capital Markets Conference December 4-5 in D.C.
MBA (10/23/2008) Royer, Denise
Attend the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Commercial/Multifamily Capital Markets Winter Conference, Evaluating the Landscape: Business in the New Market, to hear industry leaders evaluate the capital markets landscape.
With a market meltdown, a shifting investment banking model and unprecedented regulatory and legislative actions, MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Capital Markets Winter Conference presents information to keep you abreast of the latest developments in this turbulent environment. This program is especially intended for those who work either directly or indirectly in the commercial real estate capital markets.
Some highlights of this year's conference include:
Opening General Session: Post-Election Economic and Political Landscape
MBA advocacy experts Steve O'Connor, senior vice president of government affairs, and Francis Creighton, vice president and chief lobbyist at MBA, with other key lobbyists, discuss their views of anticipated legislative and regulatory changes expected from the recent election cycle.
Also, get an update on the state of the economy with Jamie Woodwell, vice president of commercial/multifamily research at MBA.
A Borrower's Landscape
Given the economic outlook, borrowers discuss the biggest challenges in managing their current portfolios. Discussions include changes in demand for space, rents and concessions, as well as the procurement of financing.
The Multifamily Landscape: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Panelists discuss the latest developments related to the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and consider what’s next for the multifamily industry and the future of the GSE model.
The Capital Markets Landscape: The Outlook for the Reconstructed Market Model
Wall Street investors, lenders and a rating agency representative discuss their outlook for the capital markets model.
Download the conference brochure for more information or click here to visit the conference Web site and register today.
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CampusMBA, Insurance Advisors Offer Live Online Workshop
MBA (10/23/2008) Stokes, Aleis
CampusMBA, the education division of the Mortgage Bankers Association, announced a partnership with Stamford, Conn.-based Insurance Advisors LLC. Under the agreement CampusMBA and Insurance Advisors will offer a series of live online workshops addressing insurance issues for commercial/multifamily real estate loans.
The live online workshops will run from November through May. Each workshop will address both broad issues as well a specific topics that industry professionals deal with on a daily basis. The workshops will target a wide spectrum of experience levels and are designed to provide practical information to loan originators, underwriters, closers, attorneys and servicers.
Registration is now open for the first workshop in the series, which addresses blanket insurance coverage. Taking place Wednesday, November 12 from 2:00 p.m.-3:15 p.m., the Blanket Insurance LIVE Online Workshop will be led by Insurance Advisors President Bernie Brown.
This 75-minute workshop will help commercial personnel to thoroughly understand blanket insurance. Knowing how blanket insurance works will help make transactions smoother, especially when closing and servicing the loan. By the end of the workshop, attendees will be further prepared when dealing with insurance issues, a current hot topic in today's volatile market.
To register and learn more about the Blanket Insurance LIVE Online Workshop, go to http://www.campusmba.org/products/default.aspx?product_code=E2901716C/REGIS
To learn more about the other Commercial Insurance LIVE Online Workshops offered by CampusMBA and Insurance Advisors go to http://www.campusmba.org/ProductsbyFormat/Instructor-ledCourses/LIVEOnlineWorkshops/CommercialInsuranceLIVEOnlineConferenceSeries.htm or call (800) 348-8653.
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Begala, Carlson in Opening General Session at CREF 2009
MBA (10/23/2008) Royer, Denise
Former co-hosts of CNN’s popular political debate program Crossfire, Paul Begala and Tucker Carlson, are scheduled to speak during the Opening General Session at the Mortgage Bankers Association's Commercial Real Estate Finance/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo 2009 on February 9 in San Diego.
MBA's CREF Convention & Expo takes place February 8-11, and it is your source to help you work smarter and faster in today's challenging market climate.
From the White House's Situation Room to CNN's news program of the same name, Begala's experience gives him an unmatched perspective on politics and the media as he comments on the 2008 political season.
As a political strategist or pundit, Begala has been at the center of every election cycle of the past 20 years. The CNN political analyst and former top aide to President Bill Clinton was reportedly the first person to predict the Democratic takeover of the House in 2006, and as senior strategist to the campaign of Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., he helped unseat the third-ranking Republican in the U.S. Senate, allowing the Democrats to take control of that chamber as well.
Carlson is a senior campaign correspondent for MSNBC. Until March 2008, he was the host of MSNBC's Tucker, a fast-paced, no-holds-barred conversation about the day's developments in news, politics, world issues and pop culture. Carlson joined MSNBC in February 2005 from CNN, where he was the youngest anchor in the history of that network. At CNN, he hosted a number of shows and specials, including the network's political debate program, Crossfire . During the same period, Carlson also hosted a weekly public affairs program on PBS, Tucker Carlson: Unfiltered.
For more information about MBA’s CREF Convention & Expo and to register today, click here to visit the conference Web site.
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Rorison Named President of Watt Commercial Properties
MBA (10/23/2008) MBA Staff
Susan Rorison was named president of Watt Commercial Properties, Santa Monica, Calif. Rorison will lead strategic development, leasing and management services for the firm’s 60 retail, residential, office and industrial properties throughout the United States.
Rorison brings three decades of retail sector experience to this position, including serving as national head of asset management for Centro Watt, a national real estate investment trust specializing in shopping centers. While at Centro Watt, Rorison helped direct its shopping center portfolio to more than $11 billion in assets and grew the Centro Watt’s presence to 38 states.
Prior to joining Watt Companies, Rorison directed national asset management for Burnham Pacific Properties, San Diego, and was Western Regional Vice President for Newark, N.J.-based Prudential Real Estate Investors, managing its regional mall portfolio.
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Mark Williams joined Red Mortgage Capital Inc. as a director in its new Denver office. He will help expand the company’s reach in the Denver and Rocky Mountain commercial real estate markets. By focusing on the origination of financing opportunities for multifamily, seniors and healthcare mortgage loans, Williams plans an emphasis on agency financing, including Fannie Mae and FHA, as well as other sources. He will also help source construction loan and tax credit equity opportunities.
With more than 20 years of commercial real estate experience, Williams completed more than $1 billion in debt and equity transactions in his career using fixed- and floating-rate structures for permanent, construction and mezzanine loans. Prior to joining Red Capital Group, Williams was vice president at Capmark Finance Inc., Horsham, Pa., and held positions of director at LJ Melody & Co., Houston, and president at Medallion Brokerage.
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Deborah Wilson joined Walker & Dunlop and Green Park Financial, Bethesda, Md. as senior vice president and chief financial officer.
Wilson, formerly with Fannie Mae, was vice president of counterparty risk. Prior to Fannie Mae, she was a partner of KPMG’s Real Estate Consulting practice, which focused on valuation, mergers & acquisitions, and productivity & profitability of commercial/multifamily mortgage banking companies.
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Tino Korologos joined Deloitte Financial Advisory Services LLP, New York, as managing director of the real estate consulting practice, with Series 7 and 63 registrations for Deloitte Corporate Finance LLC.
Prior to joining Deloitte FAS, Korologos worked as a managing director for two global investment banking firms where he managed the underwriting and ratings process on various commercial mortgage-backed securities and commercial real estate CDOs domestically, in Canada and in Europe and assisted in the marketing and distribution of these securities. He also worked as a senior analyst at a rating agency in their structured finance group where he rated CMBS transactions in the U.S. and Canada.
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CRE Industry Seeks Capital Booster Shot
MBA (10/23/2008) Murray, Michael
Shut down debt markets squeezed commercial real estate originations in September as fourth quarter outlooks appear to be more of the same.
Commercial property sales in the United States may hit $3 billion to $4 billion in closed deals, the slowest month this decade, based on preliminary statistics from Real Capital Analytics, New York.
"A couple properties in Manhattan equaled that [amount] last year," said Dan Fasulo, managing director at Real Capital Analytics. "That's nationwide. There is no better way to describe it than that. It's bad."
Fasulo said it could be the slowest month since the early 1990's.
"Clearly, the transaction volume is way off comparable to prior years," said Thomas MacManus, chairman and CEO of Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman, New York. "We expect that it is going to continue to be weak—very weak."
The past month's credit crisis focused on the London interbank offered rate—based on interest rates banks offer to lend unsecured funds to other banks—and the TED Spread—a risk-indicator in the difference between three-month Libor and three-month U.S. Treasury bills.
Libor's overnight dollar rate spiked to 6.88 percent at the end of September before falling to 1.94 percent last week and 1.12 percent as of yesterday. The TED Spread hit a record high of 4.65 percent on October 10 before falling to 4.11 percent last week and 2.5 percent yesterday afternoon.
Global central banks worked together to create liquidity within the banking system, injecting capital into financial institutions, because credit froze when banks would not risk lending to other banks.
MacManus said capital injected into financial institutions by global central banks, including the Fed, will likely not provide its first impact until the end of the first quarter or early second quarter next year.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA continue to provide multifamily debt. More than 2,700 lenders closed 48,577 individual loans, with an average loan size of $3 million, based on the Mortgage Bankers Association's 2007 Annual Report on Multifamily Lending.
However, Charlotte, N.C.-based Wachovia, acquired by Wells Fargo, San Francisco, and Seattle-based Washington Mutual Bank, acquired by Morgan Stanley, New York, were the top two lenders in the report, respectively.
"We saw strong multifamily lending activity in 2007, but the market is changing significantly," said Jamie Woodwell, vice president of commercial/multifamily research at MBA. "In just the past two weeks, we've seen announcements of 2007's two leading multifamily lenders—Wachovia and Washington Mutual—absorbed into other institutions."
"There are cash buyers, there are some that are assuming debt that is existing on properties and some smaller assets are getting financing through local and regional banks but, besides that, it's tough," Fasulo said.
Without a "frothy" debt market—or a commercial mortgage-backed securities market—MacManus said C&WSG's strategy will include advisory services, debt resolution and recapitalization, including raising equity, refinancing and selling distressed notes and assets.
"In the near term, our volume will continue to pick up based on those opportunities," MacManus said.
Even with capital injections to add liquidity, some industry analysts were concerned that increasing liquidity through the Treasury Department can also cause inflationary pressures as it increases interest rates.
MacManus said long-term treasuries could go from 4 percent to 5.5 percent or 6 percent in the next couple of years but would remain low in the short term because of a soft economy.
He said inflation could be advantageous to commercial real estate but also detrimental depending on fundamentals.
"There is a lagging effect between when the economy recovers and when you can pass those dollars onto the consumer or the tenants," MacManus said. "In the long run, rising rates attributed to inflation that is in check could push values higher—that's a good thing. But, we will have some trouble between now and then. At that point [when values are higher], it will be a good thing, but that will probably not be for two years or more."
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