Volume 2 | Issue 169 | Wednesday, September 03, 2003
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"You're seeing greater productivity in the industrial spaces being utilized. Even though demand could pick up, we may not see a corresponding increase in absorption because space is being used more effectively."
--Ross Moore, vice president, U.S. director of research at Colliers International, in reference to the correlation between industrial property and manufacturing increases. 
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Top National News
House-Buying Optimism High Despite Rising Rates (USA Today)
Prices Rise But Growth Is Slowest in Four Years (Los Angeles Times)
Home-Loan Banks Face Proposal (Wall Street Journal)
Prepping for New Respa, Title Insurer Cuts 2 Deals (American Banker)
Fixing Fannie and Freddie (Washington Post)
Study: 70 Percent of Investors to Up Property Buys in Next 12 Months (Dow Jones Newswire)
Fannie, Freddie Rise and Financials Close Up (CBSMarketWatch.com)
US Housing Secretary Pledges to Help Revamp Colombia Mortgage System (Dow Jones Newswire)

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Residential Finance News
Application Volume Continues to Drop in MBA Weekly Survey
Residential Briefs

Commercial/Multifamily Finance News
DealMaker of the Day
Commercial Briefs

MBA News
CampusMBA Hosts Appraisal Standards Program Sept. 24

Spotlight: Commercial/Multifamily
Industrial Vacancies Could Lower as Manufacturing Increases

Top News
House-Buying Optimism High Despite Rising Rates
USA Today (09/03/03) P. 2B; Fogarty, Thomas A.
The recent rise in mortgage interest rates has not darkened public perception of the housing market, according to a new USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll. The research shows that 78 percent of American adults believe that now is a good time to purchase a home; and the finding is unchanged from a similar survey conducted in June, when mortgage interest rates hovered near 45-year lows. Although the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.32 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac, and mortgage refinancing and home purchases have lost some momentum, interest rates remain low by historical standards. National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah believes home sales will decline by 5 percent at most if 30-year mortgage rates do not rise above 6.7 percent this year.
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Home-Loan Banks Face Proposal
Wall Street Journal (09/03/03) P. C13
A proposal making registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) mandatory for the 12 regional Federal Home Loan Banks will be introduced by Federal Housing Finance Board Chairman John Korsmo sometime next week. Registration in turn would subject the banks to disclosure rules, from which they are now exempt due to their status as government-sponsored enterprises. The Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati agreed in February to register its securities with the SEC, but the remaining banks continue to oppose the move.
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Prepping for New RESPA, Title Insurer Cuts 2 Deals
American Banker (09/03/03) P. 1; Shenn, Jody
To prepare for changes to the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA) by HUD, Richmond, Va.-based title insurer LandAmerica Financial Group Inc.. has purchased real estate tax provider Lereta Corp., and credit report provider Info1Holding Co. Inc. Though LandAmerica already bundles certain settlement services, the acquisitions will allow the company to remain competitive if HUD approves a rule permitting two separate settlement packages--one provided by the lender and the other by third-party providers--because it will be able to bundle its services independent of outside companies. LandAmerica CFO William Evans explains that title companies cannot cut insurance prices due to regulations, so they must offer other services at a discount in order to stay in business. LandAmerica is pleased with the acquisitions, regardless of whether or not HUD moves forward with its RESPA proposals, because they will enhance the company's existing settlement-service bundles and boost profits.
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Fixing Fannie and Freddie
Washington Post (09/03/03) P. A17; Samuelson, Robert J.
Columnist Robert Samuelson writes that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in dire need of repair, because "they have grown so large that if they ever experience serious financial problems, they will almost certainly have to be rescued by the government at immense cost." Samuelson is quick to point out that the bailout scenario is not imminent, only that the risk will increase exponentially with time as the debt of the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) mushrooms. While he does concede that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have improved home financing, he warns that the two are forced to answer to "conflicting taskmasters"--federal legislators want higher homeownership, while Wall Street wants higher profits. Samuelson argues that the need to serve these two taskmasters leads to high-risk business strategies; and although the likelihood of a serious financial crisis is minute, he warns that, should one occur, the fallout would be immeasurable.
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Study: 70 Percent of Investors to Up Property Buys in Next 12 Months
Dow Jones Newswire (09/02/03) ; Morrissey, Janet
According to a new Marcus & Millichap/National Real Estate Investor magazine survey, 70 percent of 561 randomly polled investors plan to increase their investments in commercial real estate over the next year--some by as much as 25 percent. Respondents indicated that the only factor that could scuttle their expected investment activity would be an unforeseen jolt to the U.S. economy, such as a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11. The survey shows that optimism about where the economy is headed and the prospects of rising rents are luring many investors to the apartment sector; some 38 percent of survey participants said they anticipated that apartments would experience the biggest rent growth across all property sectors next year, with rising mortgage rates and a decline in landlord-approved concessions as two of the factors driving unit demand. The study also found that investors are not as bullish where the retail real-estate sector is concerned, even though malls and shopping centers have survived the downturn in the economy over the past few years mostly unscathed.
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Fannie, Freddie Rise and Financials Close Up
CBSMarketWatch.com (09/02/03) ; Morcroft, Greg
Shares of Fannie Mae rose 4.5 percent on Tuesday to close at $67.70, and shares of Freddie Mac advanced 1.4 percent to end the day at $53.88. The gains came after Merrill Lynch upgraded its rating on the two government-sponsored mortgage companies to "buy" status. According to Merrill Lynch, the current share prices reflect much of the worst news involving the latest problems of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Merrill Lynch adds that "though we think that bottoms have been made, we caution investors that near-term trading could be volatile due to the news flow above."
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US Housing Secretary Pledges to Help Revamp Colombia Mortgage System
Dow Jones Newswire (09/01/03) ; Van Dongen, Rachel
U.S. Housing Secretary Mel Martinez hopes to modernize Colombia's mortgage system so that the county's residents have access to affordable interest rates and long, fixed loan terms. Colombian Minister of Environment, Housing, and Public Lands Cecilia Rodriguez says the United States will help the Colombia's low-income residents to obtain home loans; revitalize urban areas; and title secondary mortgage loans. In the future, Martinez believes the United States could make "more direct contributions" to Colombia's housing industry.
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Residential
Application Volume Continues to Drop in MBA Weekly Survey
MBA (9/3/2003) Royse, Matthew
Mortgage applications fell for the fourth consecutive week as interest rates crept further up, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 29.

Meanwhile, the survey also reported that the volume of refinancings fell for the ninth consecutive weeks, falling to their lowest level in more than a year.

The Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications—a measure of mortgage loan applications for purchases and refinancings—fell by 1.6 percent to 628.7 on a seasonally adjusted basis from 638.6 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased by 2.7 percent compared with last week and was down by 40.3 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. 

The MBA seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased by 3.1 percent to 396.1 from 375.5 the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Refinance Index fell by 8.6 percent to 1981.5 from 2169.0 one week earlier. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 45.9 percent of total applications, from 48.9 percent the previous week. Under MBA survey criteria, a Refinancing Index figure above 1000 is considered to be a “boom,” but since reaching a peak of 9977.8 the week of May 30, the index has been in a freefall in which it has dropped more than 8000 points.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.25 percent from 6.22 percent one week earlier, with points decreasing to 1.27 from 1.29 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.57 percent from 5.52 percent one week earlier, with points decreasing to 1.27 from 1.36 the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs increased to 3.80 from 3.60 the previous week, with points decreasing to 0.75 from 1.07 from the previous week (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. 

Other seasonally adjusted index activity included the Conventional Index, which decreased to 879.8 from 895.9 the previous week. The Government Index increased to 209.6 from 209.3 the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 23.3 percent from 24.4 percent the previous week.

The survey covers approximately 40 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage originations, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.
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Residential Briefs
MBA (9/3/2003) McAfee, Jamie
Loan Protector Insurance Services, a Solon, Ohio-based independent outsourcer of customized mortgage insurance tracking and verification programs, has developed a new service for lenders called Electronic Insurance Interchange (EII).

Under the service, lenders can share homeowner’s insurance information from more than 85 insurance carriers through the Internet to help give them control of their insurance function.

The EII service processes a master file or extract of the lender’s portfolio and tracks all borrowers without current insurance. The software offers automatic coverage that protects lenders from hazard insurance losses by generating a series of custom warning letters to the borrower. If a borrower does not respond to the letters, the system orders lender-placed coverage on the collateral property.
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CREF / MF News
DealMaker of the Day
MBA (9/3/2003) Murray, Michael
Johnson Capital, Irvine, Calif., arranged an acquisition loan and refinance totaling $7.7 million for two shopping centers in Southern California.

Smart & Final Shopping Center in Los Angeles, Calif., has a $4.4 million loan totaling 76 percent of the purchase price and 75 percent of its value. The 10-year fixed-rate loan through Lehman Brothers has a 30-year amortization with an interest rate at 5.55 percent. 

Smart & Final operates more than 235 stores throughout the West Coast and occupies 52 percent of the gross leasable area within the 31,823 square foot community shopping center.

The $3.3 million refinance on Knoll Center North in Santa Maria, Calif., carries a 15-year term with a 30-year amortization.

Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc. provided the 34 percent loan-to-value with a fixed interest rate of 5.65 basis points, or 140 basis points over the 15-year interpolated Treasury yield. The center was 100 percent occupied at the time of funding.

"Bear Stearns won the business due to its competitive pricing and its 30-year amortization schedule based on the property's low leverage loan request," said Geoffrey Arrobio, vice president at the Los Angeles office of Johnson Capital, who arranged the deal.

The 93,366 square foot shopping center, built in 1963, has a 19,290 square foot anchor called Longs Drug Pharmacy.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles office arranged a $4.6 million floating rate bridge loan through Fremont Investment and Loan for a 115-unit loft style apartment project to be built in Culver City, Calif.

Terms of the deal include an 18-month loan with a 30-year amortization schedule at 350 basis point over 6-month LIBOR, with a floor rate of 7 percent.

"The loan paid off the existing land acquisition loan and provided captial to clomplete the final entitlement and zoning process with Culver City," Arrobio said.

At the borrower's option, the loan also includes a 24-month construction loan component to be determined upon consideration of final construction costs and building permits issued from the city.

The 80 percent land loan also included partial recourse to the borrower.
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Commercial Briefs
MBA (9/3/2003) McAfee, Jamie
A report from PricewaterhouseCoopers, New York City, says that hotels instituted or increased surcharges rather than raised rates in 2003 to increase revenue.

Since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, hotel rates have remained steady or increased minimally, said John Williams, general manager of The Pfister Hotel in Milwaukee, Wis.

The accounting firm cited examples of revenue, from early departure fees averaging $50 to charges on local and toll-free phone calls.

Hotels have also decreased discounts and free services in addition to charging fees in order to break even, said Trisha Pugal, president and CEO of the Wisconsin Innkeepers Association.

The report said hotels respond to customer resistance by disclosing all fees during the reservation process. Hotels also post signs in rooms listing charges not included in the basic room rate.

But other hotels have found ways around charging of additional fees.

“We’ve found other ways to trim expenses, like installing energy-saving light bulbs, without making the guest suffer,” said Diane Huevelmans, general manager of Country Inn & Suites, Waukesha, Wis.

*****

Shirley Zeitlin & Co. Realtors, in Nashville, Brentwood and Franklin, Tenn., through its affiliation with Christies's Great Estates, has expanded its market to offer one-bedroom and studio apartments on The World, a luxury ocean liner.

The costs range between $900,000 and $7 million. The World offers year-round global ports of call in resort-style amenities that include a spa, fitness center, driving ranges, shops and restaurants.

*****

The National Restaurant Association’s restaurant performance index jumped 1.7 percent in July.

The monthly composite index tracks the health and outlook for the restaurant industry in the U.S. and the July gain resulted in a record high level for the index. It also marks the fourth increase in the past five months.

The restaurant performance index, based on responses to the National Restaurant Association’s restaurant industry survey, includes indicators such as sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures.
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MBA News
CampusMBA Hosts Appraisal Standards Program Sept. 24
MBA (9/3/2003) MBA Staff
CampusMBA, the education arm of the Mortgage Bankers Association, will host an audio program, “Appraisal Standards: What Lenders Need to Know,” on Wednesday, September 24 from 3:00 – 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Did you know that an appraiser can reappraise a property for a second client after appraising it for the first client? Did you know that the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) now requires appraisers to analyze a three-year sales history for the subject property? What about the comparable sales?

The Appraisal Standards Board is the congressionally authorized source of appraisal standards in the United States. Virtually all appraisers performing appraisals for mortgage lenders are subject to these standards (USPAP). If you are an underwriter, loan processor, loan officer, quality control professional, and anyone else utilizing or reviewing appraisal reports, you don't want to miss this enlightening event. 
 
WileyDannyJoin industry expert Danny Wiley, chairman of the Appraisal Standards Board, to learn what you need to know about recertification of value versus updates, transferring appraisals, and other information lenders need to know about appraisals.

Listeners will learn about:

• Recent changes to USPAP that clarify the difference between an "Appraisal Update" and a "Recertification of Value;"
• Upcoming changes to USPAP that clarify appraisers' responsibilities when it comes to "readdressing" (transferring) an appraisal report;
• Comparable sales, now that USPAP requires appraisers to analyze a three-year sales history for the subject property;
• Upcoming changes that clarify the process of a reappraisal of a property for a second client after appraising it for the first client; and
• Other common misconceptions and misunderstandings between appraisers and mortgage lenders.

For more information about the program, go to the program site at CampusMBA, http://www.campusmba.org/index.cfm?STRING=content.cfm?section=469.

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Commercial/Multifamily
Industrial Vacancies Could Lower as Manufacturing Increases
MBA (9/3/2003) Murray, Michael
If industrial property becomes a reflection of recent manufacturing statistics, then absorption could continue to increase. However, new construction and greater use of facilities could take away from that increase.  

The August manufacturing index, released yesterday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), shows a production-manufacturing index (PMI) at 54.7 percent, an 8-month high since December of 2002 and almost 3 percentage points higher than the previous month.

Norbert Ore "Improvement in manufacturing activity is the first step toward a growth track in the [industrial property] sector," said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee and group director of strategic sourcing and procurement at Georgia-Pacific Corp. "This month's PMI indicates that manufacturers are increasing production. The cycle eventually leads to growth in capacity, and that is generally the point at which the demand for new plant and equipment appears."

Out of 20 industries in the manufacturing sector, 13 of those industries reported growth, including, apparel, industrial and commercial equipment and computers, electronic components and equipment printing and publishing, and furniture.

In Collier International's overall survey of the nation's industrial properties, the vacancy rate rose slightly to 10.5 percent but vacancy rates fell in coastal locations that include Honolulu, Hawaii, Sacramento, Calif., Tampa, West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and Central and Northern New Jersey. Absorption rose in all of these locations.

"New Jersey is a prime East Coast location in the United States because of its close proximity to New York City and the eastern seaboard," said John Hanlon, first vice president at ProLogis, a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and manages distribution facilities in North America, Europe and Japan.

A Teaneck, N.J. manufacturing and packing company recently signed a lease with ProLogis for a 203,512 square feet distribution space in Edison, N.J. and a New York City children's apparel manufacturing company signed a lease with ProLogis for more than 230,500 square feet of space in Cranbury, N.J.  

Nationwide, absorpotion moved up to 7 million square feet in the second quarter from minus -12.6 square feet after the first quarter of 2003.

Although ISM's report shows factory owners increasing layoffs, New Export Orders grew in August for the 20th consecutive month, while August's Imports Index grew for the 10th consecutive month. The new orders helped to boost production to 61.6 percent, its highest level since June 1999.

"The New Orders Index reflected its highest reading since January 2003. The overall picture is encouraging as many manufacturers traditionally experience an upturn during the last four months of the year," Ore said. 

Ross Moore "While the loss of manufacturing jobs has been a drag on the industrial market, a substantial increase in trade and distribution has been a big positive," said Ross Moore, vice president, U.S. director of research at Colliers International.

But Moore pointed out that industrial properties behave in a similar manner to the overall economy, with positive absorption during economic upswings and absorption falling during a poor economic run. Industrial absorption rates fell in the first quarter of 2003 after moving in a positive direction at the end of 2002 even though the full year absorption total was minus-29.8 million square feet.

"Year-to-date absorption totaled -1.5 million square feet compared with -37.5 million square feet for the same period in 2002," Moore said.

Yesterday's release of the manufacturing index increase does not sway Moore's research from the end of the second quarter. One reason is the amount of new construction that are large "build to suit" projects that tend to be large distribution facilities with high capacity.

Moore said that companies are starting to use the space they have more effectively with a trend towards height and a greater flow of goods.

"You're seeing greater productivity in the industrial spaces being utilized," Moore said. "Even though demand could pick up, we may not see a corresponding increase in absorption because space is being used more effectively."

Although industrial fundamentals should see gains from the economic improvement, Moore said that an inconsistent recovery would likely leave industrial properites also behaving in an erratic manner.

"The market is just bouncing along and there is no clear direction one way or the other," Moore said. "But I think if we keep on going down this road, then I would have to get more optimistic about my forecast."
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