
Volume 4 | Issue 105 | Thursday, June 02, 2005
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"With roughly $9.6 trillion in equity in homes in the United States, the average homeowner has a healthy cushion if housing prices decline. Thus, while we may see bubbles in some local markets, we don't expect a national bubble."
--MBA Chief Economist Doug Duncan.
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Top National News
Residential Finance News
Fannie Mae Taps Mudd as President, CEO
Analysis: Manufacturing Drops While Housing Stays Hot
This Month in Mortgage Banking
Residential Briefs
Commercial/Multifamily Finance News
Treasury Prepares TRIA Analysis for Congress
DealMaker of the Day
MBA News
Hurricane Doesn't Deter Banker from Getting CMB
MBA NewsLink Reprint Policy
Spotlight: Economy
Credit Not the Culprit
Fannie Mae's Interim Chief Get the Job Permanently
New York Times (06/02/05) P. C3; Glater, Jonathan D.
Fannie Mae interim CEO Daniel Mudd will permanently replace Franklin Raines at the helm of the mortgage finance giant. According to Stephen Ashley, chairman of the Fannie Mae board of directors, board members settled on the 46-year-old Mudd over several other candidates because they were pleased with the steps he has taken to mend the company's image in his interim role over the past six months. However, long-time Fannie Mae critic Bert Ely expressed concerns about the promotion because Mudd was chief operating officer during the period when the company was found to have violated accounting rules, which Ely says hurts Mudd's credibility on Capitol Hill. Mudd faces major issues in completing the restatement of Fannie Mae's financial results as well as dealing with lawmakers who want to restrict the company's investments and determine how much capital it can hold.
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Fannie Mae May Have New Regulator by Fall
Washington Post (06/02/05) P. D4
HUD Secretary Alphonso Jackson is confident that Congress will pass legislation giving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a new and more stringent regulator by this fall. He says that target will give the Bush administration plenty of time to persuade the chairmen of the Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees to beef up the reform bill.
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Pipeline: Fannie Eases Some Rules on Insurance
American Banker (06/02/05); Shenn, Jody
Fannie Mae is changing the guidelines for its MyCommunityMortgage suite of products, lowering the mortgage insurance requirement for loans with less than 3 percent down payment to 20 percent from 35 percent and easing insurance on loans with 15 percent to 20 percent down to 6 percent from 25 percent. The move is designed to make mortgage insurance more affordable for lower-income home buyers, and sister company Freddie Mac is considering whether such a change would work for its affordable Home Possible products as well. The new rules will take effect on July 24 for the MyCommunityMortgage line--which offers low down payments, closing costs for as little as $500, the option to use a borrower's fund for the down payment, no monthly reserve requirements and flexible credit and income sources. However, Fannie Mae's decision to allow traditional second mortgages, in addition to certain home equity lines, as piggybacks for the line is a concern for some mortgage insurers.
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Fixed-Rate Mortgages Drop Again
Wall Street Journal (06/02/05) P. D2; Simon, Ruth
HSH Associates reports that the 30-year mortgage rate last dipped to a low of 5.5 percent in March 2004; meanwhile, the current average of 5.56 percent at a time when the 10-year Treasury yield continues to decline indicates that the level may be reached once again. Bear Stearns Cos. senior managing director Dale Westhoff estimates that 50 percent of fixed-rate borrowers would benefit from refinancing if the rate slipped to 5.5 percent and that 60 percent could do so profitably if the rate fell to 5.4 percent. With fixed mortgage rates so low, Fannie Mae chief economist David Berson says adjustable-rate loans should account for 20 percent of all mortgages or less. To the contrary, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports that fully a third of all mortgage applications are for ARMs; and Berson says the trend will continue as long as home prices outpace incomes.
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Construction Activity Hits All-Time High in April
Shreveport Times (LA) (06/02/05)
The Commerce Department confirms that construction spending increased a solid 0.5 percent during the month of April, thanks to surging activity in the office sector and continued strength in the nation's housing market. The gain nudged building activity to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.066 trillion in April, following increases of 0.6 percent the month before and 1.2 percent in February. Building activity has been spurred these past few months by persistently low interest rates, which pushed sales of both new and existing residences to record heights in April. Besides a 0.6-percent jump in housing projects, the overall increase also reflects a 1.3-percent improvement in private nonresidential construction, reflecting strength in commercial construction--a category that includes both offices and shopping centers.
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Home Prices Kept Climbing at 2.2 Percent Clip in First Quarter
Wall Street Journal (06/02/05) P. A2; Schroeder, Michael
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reports a national home-price appreciation rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter, as low mortgage rates continue to bolster the housing market. The agency notes that residential values shot up 12.5 percent during the year-over-year period ended in March, up from 11.9 percent during the previous 12-month period. The highest appreciation rates from March 2004 to March 2005--31.2 percent, 25.4 percent, and 24.4 percent--were recorded in Nevada, California and Hawaii, respectively. Texas, where prices rose 3.8 percent, and Indiana, with price gains of 4.1 percent, came in at the bottom of the list.
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Hope for Affordable Housing
Washington Post (06/02/05) P. A23; Broder, David S.
Nationwide, too many families are being denied affordable housing; and it has been a decade since the U.S. government devoted any meaningful funds to building affordable digs for people in need. According to the 2003 American Housing Survey, some 7.5 million households were "severely burdened" by their housing costs--in other words, more than 50 percent of their income went either for rent or mortgage payments. In response, bipartisan legislation has emerged from the House Financial Services Committee that could generate up to $400 million or more annually for low-income housing. The main purpose of the bill is to provide stricter regulation for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose mandate is to increase the availability of housing, and require them to dump 5 percent of their yearly profits into construction, rehabilitation and preservation of affordable units.
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Rule Requires Destruction of Consumer Data
Washington Post (06/02/05) P. D3; Mayer, Caroline E.
A new rule imposed by the Federal Trade Commission to curb identity theft requires companies to destroy consumer data used in credit, employment or rental decisions by burning, pulverizing or shredding the documents. Electronic files also are included in the requirement and they must be erased or otherwise destroyed as well. Lenders, insurers, landlords, car dealers, lawyers, private investigators and all other companies must abide by the rule or face a $2,500 penalty for each violation. However, the regulation does not spell out a time line for destruction or implement requirements to secure the data--which includes credit reports and scores; insurance claims; medical reports and histories of employment, check-writing and apartment rentals.
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| Fannie Mae Taps Mudd as President, CEO |
MBA (6/2/2005) Sorohan, Mike
Fannie Mae formally announced the appointment of Daniel Mudd as its new president and CEO. Mudd had served as interim president and CEO following the departure of Franklin Raines in December.
Mudd has generally received praise for his leadership during the interim period. Key leaders on Capitol Hill, including House Financial Services subcommittee chairman Richard Baker, R-La., noted that the GSE under Mudd has taken a less confrontational and more conciliatory approach as Congress investigates alleged financial mismanagement at Fannie Mae.
Mortgage Bankers Association President and CEO Jonathan Kempner issued the following statement yesterday’s on Mudd’s appointment:
"The Mortgage Bankers Association congratulates Daniel Mudd on his new role as president and chief executive officer of Fannie Mae. Throughout his tenure at Fannie Mae, and specifically in the past six months as interim CEO, Dan has shown strong leadership and a dedication to ensuring the safety and soundness of Fannie Mae. He brings a wealth of expertise to his new position, both from a general finance perspective and from his institutional knowledge of Fannie Mae.
“Fannie Mae, along with Freddie Mac, plays a key role in maintaining and improving liquidity and stability in the secondary mortgage market. MBA is committed to working with Fannie Mae to continue to enhance housing opportunities for all Americans.
“We congratulate Dan and all of our industry colleagues at Fannie Mae, and look forward to working with them."
Fannie Mae Board Chairman Stephen Ashley, who will continue in that role, said the board believes the Mudd is the “most qualified person” to lead the GSE through its transition period.
"The Board wanted to see a transformation at Fannie Mae. Over the past six months, Dan Mudd has begun to put Fannie Mae on the right track, and we are confident that Dan will continue to lead the company in this new direction," Ashley said.
Not everyone was pleased with Mudd’s selection. Bert Ely, principal of Ely & Co., Alexandria, Va., and a longtime critic of the GSEs’ business practices, said that Fannie Mae should have looked harder outside of its own structure to find a new CEO.
“At worst, it represents the height of political arrogance that may come back to haunt Fannie, and Freddie, too, as Congress continues to masticate on GSE regulatory reform legislation,” Ely said. “As Fannie's chief operating officer for six years, and Frank Raines's number-two man, Mudd was at the center of all that went wrong at Fannie—he is part of the problem, and therefore not part of the solution.”
But Stephen Blumenthal, acting director at the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, also expressed a positive note over Mudd’s appointment. “Mr. Mudd has played a key role in the transformation of Fannie Mae and I look forward to continuing the development of a strong, constructive relationship between Fannie Mae and OFHEO,” he said.
Prior to joining Fannie Mae, Mudd was president and CEO of GE Capital in Japan. The son of veteran CBS newscaster Roger Mudd, he began his career at GE Capital in 1991, was managing director for international financing from 1993 to 1995, and became President and CEO for European fleet services in 1995. He was president of GE Capital Asia-Pacific from 1996-1999 and managed the operation through the Asian financial crisis. Prior to GE, Mudd held positions in consulting and financial services.
As Fannie Mae's COO, Mudd oversaw the company's single-family, multifamily, credit, housing and community development, e-business, technology, corporate marketing and administrative divisions.
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| Analysis: Manufacturing Drops While Housing Stays Hot |
MBA (6/2/2005) Velz, Orawin
The manufacturing sector’s expansion continued to slow further in May. The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Index fell to 51.4 from 53.3 in April, the sixth consecutive month of decline. This is the lowest reading since June 2003, when the manufacturing industry started to expand, which has now continued uninterrupted in its third year. (A reading of 50 or higher indicates an expansion).
New orders, production and employment components all declined, suggesting continued weak manufacturing conditions in the coming months. It appears that an inventory buildup (predominantly in the auto industry) in the first quarter has largely driven the recent slowdown, as firms have remained reluctant to add products to their current stocks.
The good news is that the report also eases inflation concerns. The prices paid index plunged by 13 points to the lowest reading since September 2003. This suggests that the pass-through of higher commodity prices paid by manufacturers is nearly complete. The good news on inflation coupled with comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher that the tightening cycle may be near an end rallied the Treasury markets. The yield on the 10-year Treasury notes dropped to as low as 3.89 percent before hovering around 3.90 by mid afternoon.
Additional reports yesterday confirm the strength of the housing market this year, with no sign of a slowdown in home prices. Total construction spending rose by 0.5 percent in April–an increase of 8.2 percent over a year ago. Both private and public construction increased, with spending on private residential building rising by 0.6 percent, compared with 1.3 percent for private nonresidential construction.
The Office of Federal Housing and Enterprise Oversight also reported yesterday that the nation’s average home prices (using price data from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) grew by 12.5 percent in the first quarter of this year from the first quarter of 2004, accelerating from a year-over-year gain of 11.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
(Orawin Velz is director of economic forecasting in the Mortgage Bankers Association’s economics and research department and provides commentary and analysis on key economic indicators. She can be reached at ovelz@mortgagebankers.org.)
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| This Month in Mortgage Banking |
MBA (6/2/2005) MBA Staff
According to a Mortgage Bankers Association survey, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMS) and interest-only (IO) loans accounted for nearly 63 percent of originations in the second half of 2004. These findings have lead to interesting trends in the Wholesale market.
In “Who’s Who in Wholesale,” in this month's Mortgage Banking magazine, Columbia, Md.–based Wholesale Access managing director, Tom LaMalfa surveyed companies for their data and found more and more nonprime volumes are finding their way into the numbers in a market historically focused on prime wholesalers.
For more information on the June 2005 Mortgage Banking magazine, visit www.mortgagebankingmagazine.com.
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| Residential Briefs |
MBA (6/2/2005) McAfee, Jamie
Treasury Bank N.A., an Alexandria, Va.–based subsidiary of Countrywide Financial Corp., Calabasas, Calif., added Custody Analytic Reporting Delivery (CARD) to its Web-based reporting system for document custody clients. CARD provides clients with access to important customer and seller/servicer data, such as document delivery, file reviews, exceptions and releases. Treasury Bank's CARD system is updated every hour.
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Option One Mortgage Corp., Irvine, Calif., enlisted the services of LoanCure, a subsidiary of U.S. Real Estate Services Inc., Lake Forest, Calif., which educates delinquent borrowers on potential workout programs available from their lender. The goal of establishing this relationship is to add yet another tool to help support borrowers who are experiencing difficulty keeping their loans current.
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Brookfield, Wisc.–based Fiserv Lending Solutions, announced that Albuquerque, N.M.–based Charter Mortgage selected the Fiserv UniFi PRO Mortgage eX loan origination software (LOS) system.
UniFi PRO Mortgage eX is an enterprise-wide lending product automating every phase of mortgage and home-equity loan origination, processing and closing.
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Forefront Economics Inc., Beaverton, Ore., launched national coverage of their Housing Construction Trends Report (HCTR), a monthly report on trends in single- and multi-family housing units permitted for construction at the state, county and metropolitan area levels.
The HCTR provides analysis tools for business development and the need for basic infrastructure such as electricity, gas, roads, schools and shopping centers.
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| Treasury Prepares TRIA Analysis for Congress |
MBA (6/2/2005) Murray, Michael
The Treasury Department will deliver its survey results and analysis to Congress on the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 (TRIA) before the end of this month. The results are a closely guarded secret and the department would only say that it will meet the June 30 deadline.
Treasury and Westat, an employee-owned research corporation headquartered in Rockville, Md., received the surveys and are working together on the analysis, said David Marker, project director at Westat.
“There will be something sent this month [June],” Marker said. “I’m sure there will be more analyses ongoing afterwards, but there will be a report to Congress in June. We’re responding to requests from Treasury to help them out with different analyses, but it’s in their hands at this point, in general.”
Insurers and insured survey participants received separate surveys. Treasury wanted to receive data on the relationship between terror risk insurance cost, limits, capacity and financial position. Treasury also said only summary statistical data will be included in the Treasury report to Congress.
Treasury said it wanted to receive better information on the distribution of terror risk insurance cost and coverage for different categories of business. It also wanted better data on the reasons for self-insurance when terrorism risk insurance was not purchased
The survey design included publicly-available financial data and data filed with National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). Treasury planned to merge this information with survey data.
“No matter how these questions are ultimately answered, there should be no doubt that TRIA has played a useful role in stabilizing markets and providing for the management of the threat of terrorism related loss,” said Greg Zerzan, then-acting assistant secretary for financial institutions, speaking to the Networks Financial Institute’s Regulatory Reform Summit in March.
Commercial mortgage servicers required its borrower to have terrorism insurance in its property and casualty policies after September 11, 2001, but property owners balked because terrorism insurance premiums were either at exorbitant prices or not available.
A 2004 survey of commercial mortgage servicers by the Mortgage Bankers Association, prior to the "make available" extension, showed that 94 percent of servicers would have a moderate to significant increase in expenses and nearly 60 percent would have an significant increase.
“There is no question that very serious policy questions are raised by TRIA's expiration,” Zerzan said. “As a general matter, there is widespread consensus across the federal government favoring the efficiency of markets. At the same time, it should be acknowledged that insurance markets are not entirely free—a host of state regulations, varying from one jurisdiction to the next, place a variety of controls and responsibilities on insurers. In the terror context, the variety of state regulation must be contrasted with the potentially nationwide distribution of risk, the exact concentrations of which are difficult to fully determine.”
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| DealMaker of the Day |
MBA (6/2/2005) Murray, Michael
Harbor Capital Group , a Houston-based mortgage banking firm, arranged $119 million in financing on four Class A multi-family properties and one Class A office building. Four of the five properties—an office building and three multi-family properties—are located in Texas. The other multifamily property is in Atlanta.
The office property, 2000 West Loop South is a Class A, 21-story multi-tenant office building with an attached parking garage located in the Galleria area, an upscale section of Houston. The building was 90 percent occupied at the time of closing, with rents averaging $20 per square foot.
Harbor Capital arranged $44.5 million in financing from PNC Real Estate Finance, which provided the senior debt, and RAIT Investment Trust provided the mezzanine loan. The buyer, Means Knaus Partners, purchased the property from CMD Realty Investors.
Broadwater Apartments, a 248-unit Class A property in Pasadena, Texas, 10 miles southeast of Houston, was built in 2004 and consists of units that average 958 square feet. The units rent for an average of $950 per month.
At the time of closing, the property was 92 percent occupied. Harbor Capital arranged a $15 million loan from PNC Real Estate Finance through its securitized mortgage program. Chancellor Properties purchased the property from Embry Partners, using a Delaware Statutory Trust (DST). “Harbor Capital and PNC have been pioneers in bringing the DST structure to the securitized mortgage market,” said Frank Satterfield, principal and founder of Harbor Capital.
Harbor Capital arranged a $7 million mezzanine loan from RAIT Investment Trust for the purchase of Mansions at Canyon Springs Country Club in San Antonio. MBS Properties of New Orleans purchased the property from Western Rim Advisors with a senior loan from PNC Real Estate Finance.
The Mansions was built in 2001 and is a 360-unit luxury apartment community that was 94 percent occupied at the time of the sale. The average apartment size is 1,341 square feet and the average rent is $1,453 per month.
Bellmeade Apartments in Houston is a Class A, garden-style apartment community that was 75 percent occupied at the time of sale. Built in 2003, Bellmeade Apartments has 336 units that average 954 square feet in size and rent for an average of $959 per month.
Harbor Capital arranged a $23.3 million loan from RAIT Investment Trust for the buyer, Internacional Realty, Inc. of San Antonio to purchase the property from a subsidiary of The Worthing Companies of Florida.
Internacional Realty, Inc. also purchased the 340-unit Heights at Peachtree Creek, a Class A property in Atlanta, from the Worthing Companies. Built in 2004, apartments at the Heights average 973 square feet and rent for an average $1,262 per month. Still in lease-up, the property was 66 percent occupied at closing.
Harbor Capital arranged a $29.2 million from MetLife, New York, including a forward commitment for additional funds once the property has completed its lease-up.
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| Hurricane Doesn't Deter Banker from Getting CMB |
MBA (6/2/2005) Sabol, Krista
In 2003, Hurricane Isabel charged up the East coast, knocking down trees and power lines, leaving residents without power for days, even weeks. At the time, Patricia Beasley was not only a Virginia Beach, Va., resident weathering the storm—she was candidate for the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Certified Mortgage Banker designation, studying for her six-hour written exam.
As a single mother with two children (ages 13 and 5), it was a challenge to have no electricity or hot water for 14 days. It was compounded by having to study for one of the biggest exams she would ever have to take—and it was just two weeks away.
So that she could continue studying, Beasley’s mother would come over to stay with the children every night so she could go to the International House of Pancakes to study in the light and with coffee.
“I’d go to work, come home and get the kids to bed, then head off to IHOP at about 9:00 p.m.,” Beasley said. “I’d stay until 2:30 a.m., go home, sleep until 6:00 a.m., and do it all again the next day—for two weeks straight. The power came on the day before I was to take the written exam!”
She says that by the end of the two weeks, all of the waitresses at the restaurant—and the police officers who came in on their breaks—knew her and wished her well on her exam. “It was a crazy experience, and the anticipation was very high, but I’d do it all over again if I had to. I wanted to get my CMB for a long time, and it was just time to get it done. After passing my written exam, I passed my oral exam at the 2003 MBA Annual Convention in San Diego where I received my designation.”
Beasley is vice president of production with New South Federal Savings Bank's Virginia Beach office. She has a longstanding career in the mortgage industry, and has served in various leadership positions, including vice president of production/branch manager with Tidewater Mortgage Services; senior loan officer in the executive office of Towne Bank Mortgage; and assistant vice president/branch manager and renovation & rehabilitation lending manager with First Jefferson Mortgage. Prior to her mortgage banking career and at the age of 19, Beasley owned and managed a beauty salon for four years.
Beasley reflected on the positive and unique ways the CMB has impacted her career. “As we all work daily in our own area of expertise, we tend to lose sight of the fact that there are so many different pieces to the mortgage industry puzzle,” she said. “Obtaining my CMB has provided me with a clear understanding and knowledge of how each piece fits together and of their importance of their role in our industry. It has also dramatically improved my networking capabilities, allowing me to meet so many fascinating people not just from our country, but from around the world. Finally, it solidifies my commitment to our profession and is an avenue for me to give back to the mortgage banking industry, for which has given me so much to be grateful.”
Beasley is very involved in the industry and in her community. She is a member of the Virginia Mortgage Lenders Association, and of the Tidewater Mortgage Bankers Association, where she served as 2003 president. She was the 2001 & 2002 president-elect, 2000 treasurer and the 1999 community involvement chair. She was on the 2000 board of directors for the South Hampton Road Habitat for Humanity, and also served as the 1999 City of Portsmouth chair. She received the Tidewater Mortgage Bankers Association 1999 President’s Award of Excellence.
Since earning the CMB in 2003, she has taught classes for the VMLA Accredited Mortgage Banker (AMB) designation, received the 2003 VMLA President’s Award for Outstanding Dedication and Service and served as VMLA Director (2004).
When asked what advice she has for CMB candidates or for those interested in the designation, she confided that they must be completely dedicated and determined.
“It is not easy, but it is obtainable and well worth it. If you are thinking of starting the process, take the time to complete and maintain your CampusMBA transcript—it is an excellent tool to use as a roadmap through the process. Find out where you stand in obtaining your points, and write out a plan of action. Most importantly, take the time to enjoy the process of obtaining your CMB designation; you have so much to gain from the experience.”
Since 1973, leaders within the real estate finance industry have earned the CMB to exhibit their dedication to the industry—and to themselves. You may have thought about taking the steps to earn the CMB, but have asked yourself: Where do I get started? What is involved?
Patricia Beasley is proof that even Hurricane Isabel can’t stop a determined CMB candidate. CampusMBA Designations staff and the Society of Certified Mortgage Bankers are available to assist you in making the steps in achieving your goal.
CampusMBA’s CMB Online Prep Course, conducted June 3 through July 15, is available to help you prepare for the CMB exam. This six-week web-based course is facilitated by CMB designees, and study materials will cover each Residential CMB exam topic. The instructors will provide feedback on discussion board comments as well as sample essay responses, to help you focus your knowledge on the exam responses. You just have to take the first step: enroll into the CMB program and submit your resume to begin the point assessment process.
You make decisions everyday that impact the lives of others. Make the decision to change yours by earning your CMB this year. To get started today, contact either Jennifer Ridings at jridings@mortgagebankers.org or (202) 557-2763, or Alicia Willey at awilley@mortgagebankers.org or (202) 557-2766. If you are already a candidate and wish to register for the CMB Online Prep Course, call (800) 348-8653 or visit Web-Based Courses at www.campusmba.org.
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| MBA NewsLink Reprint Policy |
MBA (6/2/2005) MBA Staff
Articles appearing in MBA NewsLink are available as reprints for a nominal fee. Reprints are done on quality paper or can be sent electronically as a .pdf file. Reprints can be distributed to your employees, to illustrate presentations or for other communication purposes.
For reprint information on stories in MBA NewsLink, contact Al Esposito at 1-800-394-5157, extension 28.
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| Credit Not the Culprit |
MBA (6/2/2005) Duncan, Doug
(Editor's note: This op-ed piece by Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Doug Duncan appeared in the June 1 editorial page of USA Today.)
Recent stories by some say easy credit will cause a national "house price bubble" leading to a house price collapse and serious economic problems. This theory is ill-defined, as are the triggers leading to dropping prices. Low interest rates, coupled with adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and interest-only loans (IOs), are oft-named as culprits.
First, some perspective. Nearly 35 percent of homeowners own their home outright; 51 percent have fixed-rate mortgages, leaving 14 percent with ARMs, a small percentage of that being IOs. Additionally, today's many different loan products are tailored to meet different consumer needs.
Mortgage lenders recommend loan products that fit an individual household's financial situation. IOs suit high-income and wealthy households who want only the mortgage interest deduction. They also suit those with low salaries but sizeable periodic bonuses or commissions, as well as young households with a 410(k) employer match because their 410(k) earns an immediate and higher return than principal on their mortgage. IOs are not ideal for fixed-income households stretched to the max.
Keep in mind that the principal paid during the early years of a fixed-rate loan is quite small. So when an IO loan reverts to a conventional loan, a homeowner who opted for it will not have dramatically less equity than one with a more standard loan. Nor will his or her upward adjustment in payments be as large as many assume. Furthermore, reasonable assumptions show the majority of households should be able to meet their obligations when the adjustment takes place.
With regard to ARMs, our research shows they have a slightly higher delinquency rate than fixed-rate mortgages. Therefore, lenders are more prudent in underwriting them.
Local housing price declines have always been the result of a trigger such as significant job loss or an out-migration of population, as seen in oil patch states in the mid-1980s and Southern California in the early 1990s with significant Defense expenditure cutbacks. And, with roughly $9.6 trillion in equity in homes in the United States, the average homeowner has a healthy cushion if housing prices decline. Thus, while we may see bubbles in some local markets, we don't expect a national bubble.
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