Volume 4 | Issue 198 | Thursday, October 13, 2005
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“Terrorism is really war. The understanding is that wide areas are completely impossible to shift on the backs of insurance carriers….We have been talking to the government for sometime for the need to have wide area event coverage. We still believe, as industry members, [a wide area event] is not insurable. There is no appetite for industry reserves. The industry would be in support of [reserves] but it will take a long time to build.”
--Ramani Ayer, chairman and CEO of The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., Hartford, Conn., on the risk of terrorism to the insurance industry.
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Top National News
Freddie Mac to Invest $1 Billion in Hurricane Zone (Washington Post)
Freddie Mac Tours Asia to Promote New Mortgage Bonds (Bloomberg)
In Brief: Bies Warns of Real Estate Lending Risks (American Banker)
Home-Cost Rise May Ease in '06 (Los Angeles Times)
Fellow Economists Back Bernanke, Kohn to Succeed Fed's Greenspan (Wall Street Journal)
Spitzer Loses Ruling on Banks (Los Angeles Times)
Housing Bubble Threatens Global Economic Growth, Bootle Says (Bloomberg)
Builders Vow to Save Home Loan Tax Break (USA Today)
Will Hot Property Investments Remain as Safe as Houses? (Financial Times)

Residential Finance News
Consumers Not Totally Prepared For Financial Emergency
Letters to the Editor
Residential Briefs

Commercial/Multifamily Finance News
DealMaker of the Day

MBA News
MBA Accounting, Tax Conference Nov. 7-9
Path to Diversity Scholarship Application Deadline Oct. 15

Spotlight: Commercial/Multifamily
Without TRIA, Insurers Face 'Catastrophe'

Top News
Freddie Mac to Invest $1 Billion in Hurricane Zone
Washington Post (10/13/05) P. D1; Shin, Annys
Freddie Mac has announced that it will purchase $1 billion in bonds from state and local housing finance agencies in order to provide low-cost mortgages and home-repair loans to victims of Hurricane Katrina. The move underscores the government-sponsored enterprise's mission "to provide stability, liquidity, and affordability for housing markets--both in good times and in crises like this one," said Freddie Mac Chairman and CEO Richard Syron. He discredited any assumptions that Freddie Mac is reaching out to evacuees as a means of influencing Congress, which presently is debating legislation that would strengthen oversight of the GSEs. Morgan Stanley & Co. analyst Kenneth Posner noted that Freddie Mac's Katrina outreach efforts have earned the support of investors and lawmakers while simultaneously boosting its portfolio.
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Freddie Mac Tours Asia to Promote New Mortgage Bonds
Bloomberg (10/13/05)
Freddie Mac officials currently are touring Asia for the third time this year, hoping to woo investors there as part of a larger effort to raise more money for residential mortgages at home. The government-sponsored enterprise is marketing bonds that are backed by home loans after developing a new security earlier in the year to entice those investors who have balked at certain risks, including prepayment of principal, tied to traditional mortgage-backed bonds. The new bonds--dubbed Reference REMICs--have a guaranteed annuity that eliminates a risk of typical mortgage bonds, whereby the usual payoff time of fewer than 10 years may fluctuate depending on interest rates. Even though they have no credit ratings, Reference REMICs are enticing due because payment on the mortgages that secure the debt is guaranteed by Freddie Mac.
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In Brief: Bies Warns of Real Estate Lending Risks
American Banker (10/13/05); Mullins, Luke
Federal Reserve Board Gov. Susan Bies this week again stated her concerns over heavy concentrations of commercial real estate loans and the growing popularity of such unconventional lending products as adjustable-rate mortgages. Of the former, she warned, "During previous downturns in the credit cycle, banks with high commercial real estate concentrations have suffered significant losses." Of the latter, she stated that the various exotic mortgage products represent a "potentially higher risk of default than traditional mortgages." Bies made her comments at the National Bankers Association's annual convention in Southern California.
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Home-Cost Rise May Ease in '06
Los Angeles Times (10/13/05) P. C3
The National Association of Realtors forecasts slower home-price growth in 2006, as soaring energy costs and subsequent concerns about inflation lead to higher interest rates. NAR predicts that the resale appreciation rate will drop to 5.2 percent next year from 12.5 percent in 2005. Despite the anticipated weakening, the trade group believes that sales of previously owned homes will rise by 4.2 percent to a record 7.07 million units this year. Meanwhile, new home sales are expected to climb by 7.1 percent to 1.29 million.
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Fellow Economists Back Bernanke, Kohn to Succeed Fed's Greenspan
Wall Street Journal (10/13/05) P. A2; Annett, Tim
U.S. economists most favor Federal Reserve Gov. Donald Kohn or Council of Economic Advisors Chairman Ben Bernanke as Alan Greenspan's replacement at the helm of the central bank, according to the Wall Street Journal's monthly economic forecasting survey. Of the eight possible nominees, Kohn and Bernanke scored highest in terms of economists' overall confidence in their ability to run the Fed--although Bernanke's perceived independence as Fed chairman was rated somewhat lower than Kohn's. However, unlike Greenspan, the economists polled view familiarity with the markets--rather than the perceived political independence of the candidate--as the key to selecting the best person for the job. According to Moody's Investors Service chief economists, that entails having "an ability to read the market, to understand when markets are becoming concerned about a rise in inflation risks, and the need to counter with firmer monetary policy" as well as knowing "when to halt rate hikes to not risk an economic slowdown."
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Spitzer Loses Ruling on Banks
Los Angeles Times (10/13/05) P. C3
New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer has lost his battle against the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency over predatory lending. He launched an investigation this spring to determine whether mortgage lenders engage in discriminatory practices by saddling minority borrowers with higher fees. However, U.S. District Court Judge Sidney Stein has ruled that the National Bank Act makes Spitzer's questionnaire for lenders illegal, adding that the federal government has jurisdiction over federally chartered banks. "Not only do the decisions address whether a state attorney general can exercise its visitorial powers over national banks, they affirm the [Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's] preemption regulation," explained American Bankers Association CEO Edward Yingling.
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Housing Bubble Threatens Global Economic Growth, Bootle Says
Bloomberg (10/13/05); Humble, Laura
The world economy could slide into a recession because of the threat of a housing bubble, according to economist Roger Bootle. As a result of the "symbiotic relationship" between residential prices and the economy, a downturn in the housing market will make consumers feel less wealthy and lead them to spend less, which will cause employers to eliminate jobs, he writes in the revised edition of his book "Money for Nothing." "When it bursts, the world will tremble," warns Bootle, economic adviser to Deloitte & Touche and a former adviser to the U.K. Treasury. The National Association of Realtors reported that U.S. sales of previously owned homes reached their second-highest level on record and prices surged to a record in August, thanks in part to interest rates that were near historic lows. [EDITOR'S NOTE: The Mortgage Bankers Association says that while bubbles may some areas of the country, such as certain coastal regions, economic conditions do not suggest a national housing bubble.]
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Builders Vow to Save Home Loan Tax Break
USA Today (10/13/05) P. 3B; Kirchhoff, Sue; Chu, Kathy
A proposal by a federal commission to scale back tax breaks for home mortgage interest would "send a lot of chills" through the market and make people think twice about buying or selling a residence, warns National Association of Realtors tax counsel Linda Goold. The special panel appointed by President Bush is considering eliminating the tax preference for homeownership along with tax breaks for employer-provided healthcare to help pay for the repeal of the alternative minimum tax, which will impact 20 million taxpayers in 2006. Elimination of the home-loan tax break could affect residential lending and housing prices--particularly those at the top end of the market, which could decline; and the National Association of Home Builders says it will fight the proposal. Some experts--such as Mark Zandi, chief economist of Economy.com--see the proposal as a positive because current tax policy has encouraged people to overinvest in their homes and use them too much as a source of cash.
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Will Hot Property Investments Remain as Safe as Houses?
Financial Times (10/13/05) P. 42; Postelnicu, Andrei
The Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders Index has posted a return of 38.8 percent during the past year, greatly surpassing the 5.7-percent return recorded by the Standard & Poor's 500. Moreover, homebuilding stocks have surged by 369.8 percent since 2000, versus a 10.8-percent loss in the S&P 500. Though Credit Suisse First analyst Ivy Zelman is not concerned about a national housing bubble, she is worried that major corrections in homebuilders' stock are on the horizon. "Excessive speculation, fuelled by interest-only loans and unprecedented leverage, has resulted in artificially inflated home prices and in turn, homebuilders' margins, returns and land assets…the embedded risk is alarming," she remarks.
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Residential
Consumers Not Totally Prepared For Financial Emergency
MBA (10/13/2005) McAfee, Jamie
Hurricane Katrina revealed a lack of preparedness on every level.  Only 51 percent of respondents have an emergency fund in case of termination of income, according to a new Experian-Gallup Personal Credit Index survey.

The survey found that 37 percent of consumers said they would use their home-equity as a source of money if their income stopped. Of those with an emergency fund, two in three (69 percent) have cash on hand in case of an emergency; only 27 percent said they have $1,000 or more. Seventy-five percent said they would use their savings account as a source of money in case of an emergency, while 56 percent said they would use their credit cards, 50 percent said they would borrow money from a family member, and 39 percent say they would use their 401(k) retirement account.

"Although it may seem overwhelming to prepare both physically and financially for a major disaster, there are many small steps consumers can start taking now that can add up quickly in a very short period," said Ed Ojdana, group president of Experian Interactive. "It's great to see from our recent survey that most consumers have many of the basic physical needs, but it's troubling to see the number who are not financially prepared."

Only 15 percent of respondents said they are "very prepared" for such a disaster. Four in 10 consumers said they are "not at all prepared" (23 percent) or "not too prepared" (18 percent) for a natural disaster such as Hurricane Katrina . Most consumers store basic emergency items: 95 percent have flashlights, 90 percent have food, and 85 percent have batteries. About three in four have a portable radio (77 percent), a first-aid kit (73 percent) and bottled water (71 percent). Two in three (65 percent) said they have their credit card numbers, bank account numbers and other financial information in one place.

The Experian-Gallup Personal Credit Index is based on a monthly survey conducted Sept. 20 through 26, and included 1,001 adults. The sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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Letters to the Editor
MBA (10/13/2005) MBA Staff
Dear Editor:

We were most pleased to read the recent story in the Residential Spotlight on the Housing Plus Partnership For America dated October 11.  I would like to take this opportunity to clarify some errors for the reader’s edification.

The article describes the company as a non-profit enterprise. The company is not a non-profit, but intends to create a non-profit to funnel funds to on an ongoing basis in support of the low-income buyers assistance program component of Housing Plus.

The article also mentions an IPO.  The company has not undertaken, nor has it completed an IPO. In fact, the company will be seeking capital investment.

The article may leave readers confused as to when cash flows are paid out under the transaction construct we are seeking to promote. The transaction construct provides monthly distributions of cash flows to the investors and the homebuyer.

Today, we are moving forward with the software programming for the new trading platform and expect it to be ready for a beta test around Thanksgiving. This is our next major hurdle and once the test has been successfully completed, we will be able to start working with mortgage banking industry professionals at all levels to increase capital liquidity (and profitability) to the industry in general, and the housing finance consumers in all income brackets in particular.

Clinton Lovell
CEO, Housing Plus Partnership For America
West Palm Beach, Fla.
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Residential Briefs
MBA (10/13/2005) McAfee, Jamie
CRMnow, Aliso Viejo, Calif., announced Guaranty Bank FSB, Brown Deer, Wis., selected Mortgage iQ as its enterprise customer relationship management (CRM) platform for its Shelter Mortgage LLC subsidiary. Mortgage iQ allows companies to produce and deliver marketing pieces.

****
Wholesale Lending Online (WLO), Burlingame, Calif., implemented Electronic Loan Review (ELR), a decision support tool to detect and prevent fraud by Interthinx, Calabasas, Calif.

ELR checks loans in real time at the point of application and at the pre- and post-funding stages, generating interactive reports. ELR increases e-mail capability workflow and updates loan origination software at no extra charge.

****
Columbus, Ohio–based Armstrong Mortgage Company, will open a western U.S. loan production office located near Denver. The office will be overseen by Steve Underhill. Underhill, was most recently the manager of the Hospital Finance Group for the FHA lending unit of Prudential Financial.
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CREF / MF News
DealMaker of the Day
MBA (10/13/2005) Murray, Michael
Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Brokerage Co ., Encino, Calif., announced the sale of The Vineyards apartment community in Glendale, Ariz., for $14.6 million. The sales price represents $48,667 per unit and $64 per square foot.

Built in 1984, The Vineyards is located one mile east of Luke Air Force Base. The property consists of 228,400 rentable square feet situated on 10.47 acres.

Financing for one phase of the sale was arranged by MMCC. The $5.3 million loan was provided by an undisclosed conduit lender with a five-year term and a 30-year amortization. Pricing was 125 basis points above the five-year Treasury. Greg Miskovsky in MMCC's Phoenix office arranged the financing.
 
Ric Holway and Alfred Hackbarth of Marcus & Millichap's Phoenix office represented the sellers in the transaction, which included Richard Meese, Charlie Dunlap, Lydia Torea, Bruce Henderson and Gary Magee of Chandler, Ariz. Reza Ghaffari of the firm's Ontario, Calif., office represented the buyer. The buyer was Sharo Khastoo of Pelican Property Management.

The garden-style community has 104 one-bedroom units and 196 two-bedroom units. It includes a basketball court, sand volleyball court, spa, playground, fitness center, laundry facilities, two swimming pools and nine barbecue areas.

Erik Rogers in MMCC's Ontario, Calif. office arranged $5.95 million of debt financing on a 130,000-square foot retail property located in Batesville, Miss. The financing for the Batesville Factory Stores was provided through an undisclosed credit union at a 75 percent loan-to-value ratio, with a 6.29 percent interest rate. The loan is fixed for five years without a pre-payment penalty, with a 30-year amortization. The property was purchased by an undisclosed California investment group.
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MBA News
MBA Accounting, Tax Conference Nov. 7-9
MBA (10/13/2005) Rawak, Melissa
Earn up to 14 CPE credits—register for the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2005 Accounting, Tax and Financial Analysis Conference in Boca Raton, Fla., November 7-9.

This year’s program incorporates both commercial/multifamily and residential sectors in the real estate finance industry. Sessions are designated by sector, while other sessions are appropriate for both. This conference provides up-to-date information on critical accounting, tax and other financial developments affecting large and small mortgage banking companies.

Go to http://events.mortgagebankers.org/accounting2005/agenda to view the program agenda.

Accounting and tax experts who serve in the real estate finance industry, as well as seasoned financial analysts, deliver presentations that contain current information relevant to help you work more effectively and understand the latest industry developments. Topics covered include: regulatory trends; economic and mortgage market environment; SEC Regulation AB; and accounting for loan transfers and securitizations.

Who should attend:

• Chief Financial Officers
• Financial Officers
• Comptrollers
• Internal Auditors
• Independent Accountants
• Accounting Policy Managers

This year’s location is at the beautiful Boca Raton Resort & Spa (Web site: www.bocaresort.com). MBA discount room rates for the conference are $199 single/double with a $9 resort fee apply until the hotel cut-off date of Monday, October 17; early registration discount is valid through Monday, October 24.

Sponsorship opportunities are still available; call (202) 557-2790 or e-mail mbrady@mortgagebankers.org.

For additional information, visit http://events.mortgagebankers.org/accounting2005/default.html, or call (800) 793-6222, 9:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. Monday-Friday EDT.
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Path to Diversity Scholarship Application Deadline Oct. 15
MBA (10/13/2005) MBA Staff
The Path to Diversity scholarship program allows industry professionals from diverse backgrounds to advance their professional growth and career development through CampusMBA, the education arm of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Scholars receive a $2,495 voucher to use toward CampusMBA education courses and products. Choose from residential or commercial offerings delivered via distance learning or classroom-based training. For details about the scholarship program, go to http://www.mortgagebankers.org/pathtodiversity/empschol/.

Scholarship applications are reviewed on a regular basis by the scholarship committee. The next deadline for application submissions is October 15.

For more information, go to http://www.mortgagebankers.org/pathtodiversity/. You can also download the application at http://www.mortgagebankers.org/PathToDiversity/empschol/Application.htm. You can also email Joanna Truitt at jtruitt@mortgagebankers.org.
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Commercial/Multifamily
Without TRIA, Insurers Face 'Catastrophe'
MBA (10/13/2005) Murray, Michael
Losses from a large-scale terrorist attack could exceed surpluses and drive insurers out of business, according industry participants at a Web seminar held yesterday, “A World Without TRIA: Why a Terrorism Insurance Backstop is Vital.”

Ramani Ayer, chairman and CEO of The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., Hartford, Conn., said insurance companies would cover losses as high as the amount from the World Trade Center attacks and bear 80 percent of overall risk with extension of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA). However, federal involvement would insure against extreme catastrophic events, greater than the terrorist attacks from September 11, 2001.

Ayer noted the costs from 9/11 at $32 billion from property and workers compensation lines, but he said coverage in a wide area event is much more extensive. A model from Risk Management Solutions, Newark, Calif., shows that a five-kiloton nuclear bomb would cost  $586 billion in property and workers compensation lines; an anthrax attack would hit $330 billion; nuclear plant sabotage would cost $160 billion; a dirty bomb could cost $97 billion; and a sarin gas attack can reach $48 billion.

“Insurers might think of kinds of perils specific to location, but wide area events are difficult to protect themselves,” Ayer said. “That is something that affects the whole wide territory.”

Different simultaneous five-ton bombs could lead to more than $150 billion in losses from attacks in New York, Washington, Chicago, San Francisco and Los Angeles, according to statistics from RMS. “The public, including insurance companies, has very limited information about this risk,” Ayer said. “More time is needed to develop a permanent, long term private-public partnership program.”

“Three years was the best deal we could get [in 2002].” said Joel Wood , senior vice president of government affairs for the Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB). “We don’t like government to have to backstop [the industry], we prefer a private marketplace.”

The Mortgage Bankers Association favors extension of TRIA’s provisions and a permanent solution to a federal terrorism insurance backstop. MBA has said that while terrorism insurance coverage assures stability and continuity for the commercial real estate industry, TRIA and terrorism insurance defends the U.S. against physical and economic consequences. MBA and CIAB are active participants in the Coalition to Insure Against Terrorism (CIAT) http://www.insureagainstterrorism.org/.

Bradley Wood, senior vice president of risk management at Marriott International Inc., Bethesda, Md., speaking on behalf of CIAT, said 9/11 impacted numerous economic sectors, including jobs of hotel workers and taxi drivers.

“The interdependencies are critical to protect business to business relationships,” Wood said. “[Hurricane] Katrina reinforced the notion that preparedness wins the day.”

Wood compared Hurricane Katrina to a terrorist attack. His research showed hurricanes have low predictability while the predictability of a terrorist attack is remote. The reinsurance market for Hurricane Katrina was available while it remains limited for terrorism.

“The reinsurance market for wind and flood appears stable as opposed to no [market] growth in terrorism,” Wood said. The cataclysmic potential of hurricane remains severe but it is catastrophic for terrorism and a regional effect on the economy for a hurricane is a national economic problem in a terrorist attack, according to Wood. “Katrina crystallizes the need for adequate insurance in unstable markets,” he said.

The negative aspect of Katrina is Congress appropriately focused on Katrina relief with less attention on TRIA, Wood said. “Terrorism risk is larger than private markets can absorb,” he added. The limited number of days left for Congress to address TRIA. Wood said the White House is “taking a backseat this go around,” unlike in 2002 when it made TRIA a priority.

“Terrorism is really war,” Ayer said. “The understanding is that wide areas are completely impossible to shift on the backs of insurance carriers….We have been talking to the government for sometime for the need to have wide area event coverage. We still believe, as industry members, [a wide area event] is not insurable. There is no appetite for industry reserves. The industry would be in support of [reserves] but it will take a long time to build.”

Chemical, biological and nuclear weapons are the most important factors of terrorism to the economy, based on catastrophic reach, but the only available insurance is for workers’ compensation. “It may require special rules for insurance companies ‘to play in the sandbox.’” Marriott’s Wood said. “One should insure the complete peril of terrorism.”

The Webinar was sponsored by Business Insurance.
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