
Volume 5 | Issue 4 | Friday, January 06, 2006
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“The floating rate loans, particularly the large, complex structured deals on transitional or repositioning properties are a concern in a higher interest rate environment. With interest rates relatively low and property values relatively high, much of this has worked itself out. But there are still a number of properties that we are concerned about [with] their ability to refinance out at maturity.”
--Stacey Berger, executive vice president with Midland Loan Services.
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Top National News
Residential Finance News
Bush to Nominate Rob Couch, CMB, to Head Ginnie Mae
Residential Briefs
Commercial/Multifamily Finance News
CMBS Borrowers Fix Exit Through Defeasance
MBA Commends NAIC TRIEA Guidance to State Commissioners
DealMaker of the Day
MBA News
CREF Features Ripken, Palmer, Super Bowl Party
MBA State Legislative/Regulatory Exchange Call Jan. 18
Spotlight: Residential
Economist Predict Strong But Slowing Housing Sector
Housing Experts Forecast Falling Sales, Prices
Dallas Morning News (01/06/06); Brown, Steve
Housing industry representatives speaking at the biannual Homeownership Alliance conference forecast a slowdown in residential sales and price gains in 2006. The National Association of Realtors anticipates a 4- to 5-percent drop in resale volume this year, with the country's appreciation rate slipping below 6.5 percent. The Realtors group also believes some overheated markets will experience price declines, but only temporarily. Meanwhile, National Association of Home Builders chief economist Dave Seiders expects long-term mortgage rates to hit about 6.7 percent by the end of the year; and Fannie Mae chief economist David Berson believes higher mortgage rates and a slowdown in appreciation will cause some investors to abandon the housing market.
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Home-Sales Index Declines Again; Jobless Claims Fall
Wall Street Journal (01/06/06) P. A2; Preciphs, Joi; Hagerty, James R.
The National Association of Realtors reports that pending home sales fell for the third straight month in November, down 2.5 percent from October. Rising inventories, higher interest rates and affordability problems are being blamed for the decline. However, National City Corp. chief economist Richard DeKaser does not believe an oversupply of new homes will translate into a market crash. He predicts that home-price gains will slow to between 3 percent and 4 percent in 2006.
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Mortgage Rates Keep Confounding the Experts
Tacoma News Tribune (WA) (01/06/06); Aversa, Jeannine
Investor reaction to the minutes from last month's Federal Reserve policymaking meeting helped push 30-year mortgages rates down a notch to 6.21 percent this week, compared with 6.22 percent a week ago, reports Freddie Mac. The minutes suggested that the rate-raising initiative of the Fed could be coming to an end, according to Frank Nothaft, chief economist for the mortgage finance giant. Interest on 15-year loans held steady at 5.76 percent, while one-year adjustable-rate mortgages inched up to 5.16 percent from 5.15 percent; five-year hybrid ARMs, meanwhile, slipped to 5.78 percent from 5.79 percent. While the 30-year rate has fallen to its lowest level since late October, housing market observers are anticipating an increase in borrowing costs that will have a negative impact on home sales this year.
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Yet Another Victim of Katrina
New York Times (01/06/06) P. C1; Treaster, Joseph B.; Dean, Cornelia
The federal flood insurance program is $23 billion in the red as a result of the 2005 hurricane season, prompting lawmakers to debate whether it should be eliminated altogether or dramatically overhauled. Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., wants all homeowners residing in flood-prone areas--not just those obtaining mortgages--to be required to purchase flood insurance. Proponents of the program's expansion also believe rates must be doubled or even tripled in order to create a reserve to cover disasters like Hurricane Katrina, without which taxpayers could ultimately be forced to shoulder rebuilding costs. However, Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, R-Md., is among those who believe the flood insurance program should be completely done away with, contending that flood insurance promotes the continued development of areas vulnerable to natural disasters.
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Radian Arm Unloads Loan Insurance Risk
American Banker (01/06/06); Shenn, Jody
Philadelphia-based Radian Group Inc. announced that its mortgage insurance subsidiary has completed a third "Smart Home" transaction, in which it sheds some of the credit risk from insuring nonprime mortgages. An unaffiliated reinsurer assumes a share of the risk on a loan pool and subsequently issues credit-linked notes to investors, thus shifting some of the risk to the capital markets. The latest transaction, the largest of the three to date, involved almost $6.3 billion of nonprime loans and created $172.9 million of credit-linked notes. The two previous transactions were carried out on loan pools of $882 million and $1.7 billion.
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U.S. Office Market Continued to Improve Last Year
Wall Street Journal (01/06/06) P. A2; Forsyth, Jennifer S.
Reis Inc. reports that the nation's office vacancy rate declined in the fourth quarter to 14.7 percent from 15 percent in the previous three-month period and from 16.3 percent in the October-through-December period of 2004. At the same time, absorption--or the net change in occupied office space--rose to 16 million square feet in the last three months of 2005 from 13.6 million sq. ft. in the third quarter, as effective rents climbed 1 percent in the quarter and 3.2 percent for the entire year. Disparities linger, though, with markets such as New York, the nation's capital, parts of California and Palm Beach, Fla., benefiting from solid job growth while other markets such as Dallas and Cleveland continued to deal with high vacancy rates. Washington, D.C., was tops among the 69 markets surveyed, with a vacancy rate of just 7.2 percent; while Greenville, S.C., had the highest vacancy rate, at a whopping 24.1 percent.
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Fannie, Freddie Have Limited Appetite for Mixed-Use
Affordable Housing Finance (01/06); Zipperer, John
Congress for the New Urbanism President John Norquist is calling on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to finance more mixed-use projects, particularly residential-retail, as such developments often include affordable housing. Officials at both government-sponsored enterprises say they are willing to back mixed-use, provided that the development is primarily residential and the commercial components are compatible and likely to enhance the community. Fannie Mae restricts commercial space to no more than 20 percent of the development's effective gross income and no more than 20 percent of the net rental space, while Freddie Mac simply demands that no more than a quarter of the development's gross income comes from the commercial space. Both companies give developers some flexibility when it comes to downtown projects with ground-floor grocery stores and other such developments. Even so, a number of industry experts doubt that the GSEs will significantly increase their investments in mixed-use development, especially at a time when they are under such political and regulatory scrutiny.
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| Bush to Nominate Rob Couch, CMB, to Head Ginnie Mae |
MBA (1/6/2006) Sorohan, Mike
President George W. Bush announced that he intends to nominate former Mortgage Bankers Association Chairman Robert Couch, CMB, as president of the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae).
Couch is currently president and CEO of New South Federal Savings Bank in Birmingham, Ala., which operates 40 loan production offices in 13 states and a full-service deposit branch office in Birmingham. New South is the largest thrift and the seventh largest depository institution, based on asset size, headquartered in Alabama. Its operations principally involve residential mortgage, automobile, residential construction and manufactured housing lending.
“We at MBA are thrilled for Rob’s opportunity at Ginnie Mae,” said MBA President and CEO Jonathan Kempner. “Rob has a deep knowledge of the mortgage industry and knows first-hand the importance of the public-private partnership that has made FHA and Ginnie Mae programs so successful in meeting the needs of underserved families. He is a proven leader who served MBA with distinction and I am confident that he will provide excellent leadership and direction at Ginnie Mae.”
Couch has been an active member of MBA for nearly a dozen years and served as MBA chairman in 2003-2004. His volunteer service at MBA began in 2000, when he served as the first chairman of the Technology Steering Committee of the Board of Directors. He also served on MBA's Commercial Real Estate Finance/Multifamily Board of Governors (COMBOG) and the Residential Board of Governors (RESBOG). For six years, he has served on MBA's Strategic Planning Committee and was a member of the MBA Blue Ribbon Task Force that developed MBA's position on the proper role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the mortgage industry.
Couch has also served as President of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Alabama.
Ginnie Mae is a government entity under HUD that links global capital markets to the nation’s housing markets. Ginnie Mae guarantees investors the timely payment of principal and interest on mortgage-backed securities backed by federally insured or guaranteed loans, such as those issued by FHA, the VA, the Rural Housing Service and the Office of Public and Indian Housing.
Upon approval by the Senate, Couch would replace Ronald Rosenfeld, who left Ginnie Mae in 2005 to assume the chairmanship of the Federal Housing Finance Board. Michael Frenz, executive vice president at Ginnie Mae, is serving as acting president until Couch’s nomination is approved.
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| Residential Briefs |
MBA (1/6/2006) MBA Staff
Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Des Moines, Iowa, opened nearly 50 branches in 18 cities this past year with culturally-themed decor that reflects the location and cultural makeup of their communities. The branches are part of an outreach effort toward ethnic minorities by providing a greater presence in targeted areas.
According to Wells Fargo officials, each branch features a "gallery" with African-American, Asian or Latino artwork and colorful signs in languages including English, Spanish, Vietnamese, Japanese, Taglish, Cantonese or Korean.
"By reflecting the culture of the communities we serve, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage has created a setting that is warm and inviting for our customers," said Jackson Cosey, senior vice president of emerging markets with Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. "We believe that this approach will provide our customers with a friendly venue to learn about the home financing options available to them—something they may have otherwise not have explored."
Wells Fargo Home Mortgage opened these new branches in California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Texas and Washington.
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Wolters Kluwer, Minneapolis, consolidated five of its financial services businesses under a new brand name—Wolters Kluwer Financial Services, effective January 3.
The consolidated affiliates include Bankers Systems; Atchley Systems; VMP Mortgage Solutions; GainsKeeper; and CCH Wall Street.
Brian Longe, president and COO of Wolters Kluwer Financial Services, said the consolidation reflects the integration of the company’s services, which were added largely through acquisition, under a single company brand.
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| CMBS Borrowers Fix Exit Through Defeasance |
MBA (1/6/2006) Murray, Michael
Defeasance on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) deals increased substantially last year. They continue to increase this year based on higher commercial property values and an inverted yield curve.
Defeasance is an option for borrowers who want to sell or refinance property with a CMBS loan. The property note is replaced by securities that reflect the principal and interest stream and the payoff associated with the underlying collateral.
“The number of loans with defeasance as an option has steadily increased over time,” said Stacey Berger, executive vice president in the Bethesda, Md. office at Midland Loan Services, Overland, Kan. “The vast majority of deals today are predominantly defeasance as opposed to yield maintenance or prepayment penalties.”
Berger said an environment with an inverted yield curve, as it is today, is more conducive to defeasance because of the interest rate scenario. While a steep yield curve would make the bonds more expensive, an inverted curve makes securities less costly.
“Those long-term securities, on a relative basis, are inexpensive and it makes [defeasance] more attractive,” Berger said.
Fitch Ratings, New York, said it reviewed nearly five times as many defeasance requests this past year (193), accounting for approximately $7 billion in collateral, compared to only 41 requests and $1.8 billion on collateral in 2004. Fitch expects upgrades to far outpace downgrades once again in 2006, in part aided by the increasing presence of defeasance.
Fitch recorded 868 upgrades in 2005 among approximately 450 transactions under surveillance, compared with just 79 downgrades for an astounding 11:1 ratio, far surpassing the nearly 7:1 ratio in 2004.
Commercial property values are another reason for the high amount of defeasance as borrowers use this process to capture some of that value.
“As additional capital flows into the real estate market supporting higher values, defeasance will continue to be a factor,” said Mary MacNeill, managing director at Fitch Ratings.
While defeasance can cause upgrades, MacNeill noted that floating rate CMBS transactions are more susceptible to ratings downgrades because of refinance risk and adverse selection. Defeasance is not an option on floating rate loans and rising interest rates could affect maturing floating rate loans because they are structured with three-year maturities and only two one-year extension options. While stronger performing loans on traditional assets are typically the first to refinance, poor performing loans or transitional assets in a transaction are the ones left over.
“‘If transitional assets do not turn around and stabilize in a timely fashion, refinancing of floating-rate assets at maturity can be problematic.” MacNeill said.
Midland’s experience is consistent with Fitch’s concerns. “The floating rate loans, particularly the large, complex structured deals on transitional or repositioning properties are a concern in a higher interest rate environment,” Berger said. “With interest rates relatively low and property values relatively high, much of this has worked itself out. But there are still a number of properties that we are concerned about [with] their ability to refinance out at maturity.”
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| MBA Commends NAIC TRIEA Guidance to State Commissioners |
MBA (1/6/2006) Green, George
The Mortgage Bankers Association commends the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) for issuing implementation guidance for the Terrorism Risk Insurance Extension Act of 2005 (TRIEA) that promotes the availability of terrorism insurance. NAIC, through its Model Bulletin (Bulletin) process, issued TRIEA implementation guidance to state insurance commissioners that is favorable to commercial real estate.
The Bulletin represents suggested guidance that each state insurance commissioner may adopt on a voluntary basis.
In practice, NAIC Bulletins are widely adopted by state insurance commissioners. In fact, 43 of 50 state insurance commissioners and the District of Columbia adopted past NAIC guidance for TRIEA’s predecessor legislation, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 (TRIA).
Not adopting this NAIC guidance were California, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Tennessee, Missouri, and Massachusetts.
The Bulletin primarily addresses losses under $5 million relating to the “make available” available provision of TRIEA and recommends terrorism insurance coverage for certain “non-certified” losses.
NAIC Addresses the 'Make Available' Coverage Gap
In order for a terrorist act to be “certified” by the federal government it must reach the $5 million threshold. If a terrorist act does not reach this threshold, it can not be “certified”.
Without certification, it is not subject to the “make available” provision of TRIEA. The “make available” provision of TRIEA prohibits insurance carriers from excluding “certified” terrorist events. Therefore, terrorist acts under $5 million are not eligible for TRIEA coverage.
The Bulletin addresses this problem by recommending that state insurance commissioners not issue exclusions for terrorist acts if the exclusions are granted solely because the terrorist act failed to meet the $5 million “certification” level. This Bulletin recommends terrorism acts of under $5 million to be covered by terrorism insurance policies.
NAIC Recommends Coverage for Under $25 Million “Non-Certified” Losses
Only foreign source acts of terrorism can be “certified” by the federal government. Without “certification” a terrorist act is not eligible for TRIEA coverage. TRIEA does not cover domestic acts of terrorism. A domestic act of terrorism would be a “non-certified” act.
The Bulletin recommends that exclusions not be allowed for “non-certified” terrorist acts under $25 million. This NAIC guidance requires insurance companies to provide coverage for small (under $25 million) domestic acts of terrorism that are not covered by TRIEA or any other “non-certified” act of terrorism under $25 million with the exception of the exclusions presented below. Consequently, the Bulletin extends terrorism coverage for small scale terrorist attacks that may not be covered by TRIEA.
NAIC Terrorism Insurance Exclusions
In order to make the Bulletin compliant with TRIEA, exclusions for terrorist events of over $100 billion are allowed and exclusions for all losses resulting from nuclear, biological, chemical, and radiological (NBCR) terrorist events are also allowed. In the case of NBCR terrorist events, mandatory coverage of “non-certified” losses of under $25 million would not apply. Exclusions for “non-certified” losses over $25 million are allowed. For insurance policies covering liability, exclusions can be granted for terrorist events that kill or seriously injury 50 people or more.
NAIC’s Role in Promoting Terrorism Insurance
Through its federal lobbying efforts and Bulletin issuance, NAIC has undertaken a sustained activist role in ensuring that terrorism insurance remains available and affordable. These actions have brought greater stability to a vital part of the nation’s economy, the commercial real estate market. Consequently, a great debt of gratitude is owed by commercial real estate stakeholders for the vital actions undertaken by the NAIC.
Click here for a comparison chart of TRIEA and TRIA.
For any questions on TRIEA or NAIC's interim guidance, call George Green, director in MBA's Commercial/Multifamily group, at (202) 557-2840 or e-mail at ggreen@mortgagebankers.org.
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| DealMaker of the Day |
MBA (1/6/2006) Murray, Michael
American Property Financing (APF), New York, concluded an $83.4 million loan transaction on behalf of the Catholic Charities Diocese of Brooklyn/Queens.
Three separate lending entities made this $83 million transaction possible: Fannie Mae and APF are the permanent lenders; Citigroup, St. Louis, is the construction lender; and Enterprise Social Investment Corp. (ESIC) is the tax credit equity investor.
The $83.4 million loan transaction consists of $55 million in long-term fixed bonds plus another $28.4 million in short-term notes. A Fannie Mae Credit Enhancement of New York Housing Development Corp. (HDC) bonds will be issued to refinance an existing HUD Section 202 loan; which was originally provided to convert and develop these properties for use as affordable housing by a not-for-profit sponsor; as well as ‘rehabbing’ all ten properties.
The multi-million dollar closing encompasses ten multifamily housing properties dedicated to providing more than 1000 modern, affordable and safe housing units for seniors. Nine of the projects are in Brooklyn residential neighborhoods and one is in Queens.
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| CREF Features Ripken, Palmer, Super Bowl Party |
MBA (1/6/2006) MBA Staff
You still have time to register for the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2006 Commercial Real Estate Finance/Multifamily Convention & Expo, which takes place February 5-8 in Orlando.
CREF is MBA’s premier event for commercial and multifamily lenders. It provides networking opportunities and educational tools to ensure future success by showcasing new products and services, technology, business practices and ideas. CREF is the largest gathering of commercial real estate finance professionals and provides endless opportunities for building new relationships and connecting with industry experts.
The Opening General Session features two baseball greats: Cal Ripken Jr., the “Iron Man” who broke Lou Gehrig’s decades-old record for most consecutive games played, will be interviewed by another Hall of Famer and teammate, Jim Palmer, now a broadcaster. The session takes place on Monday, February 6.
But the action starts well before then. A special session on Sunday, February 5, “Get Up, Get Out, Get Going,” features guest speaker John Waldeck, manager of real estate underwriting with Pacific Life Insurance Co., who will discuss ways for you to get the most out of your convention.
The exhibit hall, always buzzing with activity, brings together convention attendees to network with peers and to learn about the latest products and services. This year, Rocky Bleier, former Pittsburgh Steelers football star, adds to the excitement and signs footballs in the Exhibit Hall on Sunday afternoon, before the annual MBA Super Bowl Party, sponsored by Bank of America, where the game will be shown on a huge-screen television with a tailgate party atmosphere.
Other highlights include the Second General Session, “Industry Dynamics in an Evolving Market,” featuring MBA Chief Economist Doug Duncan and Ray Torto, head of Torto Wheaton Research; and concurrent sessions on a variety of topics, including MISMO; conduit lending; CMBS servicing; niche multifamily markets; and loan workouts and defaults, among others.
Who Should Attend?
CREF is the event for all commercial and multifamily real estate finance professionals with a working knowledge of the industry, including:
• Mortgage bankers;
• Real estate investment officers of life insurance companies, commercial banks, savings banks, credit corporations and other lender;
• Pension fund advisors;
• Wall Street conduits;
• Structured finance companies;
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Multifamily Seller/Servicer;
• FHA-approved multifamily mortgagees and Ginnie Mae issuers;
• Commercial and multifamily real estate loan originators, administrators, secondary market executives and professionals;
• Others with an interest in commercial and multifamily real estate finance.
CREF takes place at a familiar venue: the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin hotel complex. Convenient to all Disney World/Epcot attractions, the hotels feature a special rate for CREF participants—but you have to register first.
For more information, visit the CREF Web site, http://events.mortgagebankers.org/cref2006/default.html.
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| MBA State Legislative/Regulatory Exchange Call Jan. 18 |
MBA (1/6/2006) Percynski, Beth
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s next State Legislative & Regulatory Committee Monthly Exchange Call is scheduled for Wednesday, January 18th at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
Please ask to join Beth Percynski's call with the Mortgage Bankers Association. This call is open to MBA members only and is closed to the media. For more information please contact Percynski at 202-557-2866 or bpercynski@mortgagebankers.org.
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| Economist Predict Strong But Slowing Housing Sector |
MBA (1/6/2006) McAfee, Jamie
The housing sector will still remiain strong strong despite some activity slowdown, according to economists with the Homeownership Alliance, an industry coalition that includes the National Association of Realtors, the National Association of Home Builders, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Independent Community Bankers of America.
A modest slowdown could not necessarily mean bad news for the industry. The economists said the slowdown only represents “a tapping of the brakes on a hot market.”
“It’s difficult to follow the strongest year ever,” said David Lereah , chief economist with NAR. “The boom is obviously winding down. It’s important to note that it is winding down but to healthy levels of activity. This is not 1990-1991 all over again. This is not a major contraction in the housing markets because the fundamentals are still good in housing. We still have relatively low mortgage rates even though supply is increasing it is still relatively lean and there is still healthy demand from very favorable demographics.”
"Red hot it’s not...but 2006 will be another busy year for the housing sector. As mortgage rates rise, housing activity will moderate with home sales and housing starts dipping from 2005. 2006 may not be a record-setting year, but the housing sector will still be a powerful engine that continues to fuel the nation’s economy," said Frank Nothaft , chief economist with Freddie Mac.
“In terms of the overall economy, I have a very good outlook for overall GDP growth,” said David Seiders , chief economist at NAHB. “I’ve got 3.6 percent year-over-year for 2006 that’s about what I think we’re going to get in 2005.
“Long rates up to some degree at this point, from where they were at midyear,” Seiders added. “I do expect to see some further increase in the long rates as we go forward. For example, I’ve got the 10-year treasury moving up to the 5.1 percent by the end of the year. Fixed rate mortgage to about 6.7 percent, it’s currently sitting on about 6.2 percent. The financial condition should be a little less favorable for housing in 2006 compared to 2005.”
“Housing starts, I have down 6.5 percent in 2006 from 2005,” Seiders said. “That’s basically retracing the increase we saw last year and getting back to about the 2004 level which was excellent. The big swing up and down is in the single-family component. We were expecting it to be up 7.2 percent in 2005 when we get all the numbers and I have it down 7.2 percent in 2006.”
Lereah expects existing home sales will be down between 4 and 5 percent for this year from an all time record 7.1 million in 2005. “New home sales will be down between 5 and 6 percent. Starts will be down between 7 and 8 percent,” he said.
“The housing forecast for me is based on, I think a little stronger economic growth than the others do for all of 2006, and I have 4.1 percent. I have 30-year mortgage rates really topping off at about 6.6 percent by year-end,” Lereah said.
“We are all projecting a moderate rise in mortgage rates because to use that is a blessing it means a soft landing for housing and just a temporary landing, Lereah said. “In 2007; I expect some positive activity, growth activity in the housing industry.”
David Berson, Fannie Mae’s chief economist, warned of a slowing in home price gains. “Housing activity is expected to slow in 2006, while home price gains slow sharply, in response to a pullback in investor activity and higher mortgage rates. This should be partially offset by continued strong job and income growth as well as positive demographics—suggesting that while down next year, the pace of housing activity will remain fairly strong. There is a growing risk, however, of home price drops in those areas where the investor declines are biggest,” Berson said.
“I think the biggest factor going into 2006 is that the U.S. economy is a juggernaut going into 2006. We have tremendous economic momentum entering 2006,” said Paul Merski , chief economist at ICBA. “I’m predicting a very solid 3.8 percent GDP growth for all of 2006.”
The Mortgage Bankers Association's annual State of the Real Estate Finance Industry Press Briefing will take place Wednesday, Jan. 25, at 12:30 p.m. EDT. The briefing will feature MBA Chairman Regina Lowrie, CMB; MBA President and CEO Jonathan Kempner ; Doug Duncan, MBA chief economist and senior vice president; and Kurt Pfotenhauer, MBA's senior vice president of government affairs.
MBA will release its revised three-year economic and mortgage finance forecasts, review legislative and regulatory accomplishments in 2005, and outline upcoming legislative and regulatory objectives for 2006 such as mortgage fraud, GSE reform and RESPA reform.
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